Inflation break-evens over 10 years at 2.4% – too complacent. Over one year at 5% – too pessimistic. Think we get about 4% in summer then come back down based on optimistic view war peters out. 5% break-evens seem very pessimistic.

Definitely reacting to bad news – stagflation fears rising. A little too complacent because Fed narrative weakening, politicization. Warsh likely new chair minded to cut, Powell more hawkish.

Oil at 100-110 starts to squeeze profit margins or consumption. 80-100 market can shake off. At these levels with further supply disruptions, risk goes higher – have to think about consequences of higher input prices.

Strong dollar offsets some. US energy self-sufficient. 5% hard to see. Long-term people too complacent – populism, nationalism, trade wars, wars fuel spending, very inflationary. 10-year break-evens way too low.

Winning strategy: take profits on up days, add on dips. Cycle of Trump speaking positively then refineries damaged. Trump wants win but Iran not giving chance. Like to sell put options on stocks I'd love to own if market oversold – get paid premium for buying discipline.

Love high-bandwidth memory stocks – Micron, Samsung, Hynix. Cyclical but picking up under 10x forward earnings with growth. Runway many quarters ahead. Demand insatiable, sold out through 2027.

Want to own companies receiving money from hyperscalers – 100% committed to spending. Nvidia, Micron, Samsung beneficiaries. Also electricity generators, uranium. Clear hyperscalers will spend; not clear they'll be profitable.

Samsung and Hynix Asian – similar to Micron, oligopoly with pricing power.

Makes sense – at margin, not 180 pivot but may see other aspects allocated.

Gold not safe haven – speculative asset. Source of funds when risk aversion. In stagflation you get higher yields – toxic for equities, long duration bonds, and gold. Like gold miners because gold doesn't have to go up for them to generate profit.

January – gold implied volatility high-twenties, equity volatility 26%. Equities speculative, gold more speculative than equity.