So this market continues to be in a bullish trend. And we think that's going to really continue through the first half of 2026. Now here in the interim, I think you could get some soft economic data. I think that's why you've seen volatility spike VIX over the 20s of the last few trading days. But I think it's going to be unwarranted to be concerned about the economy going into a recession or having such a slowdown that it impacts the capital market. So I expect things to stay choppy between now and Thanksgiving, before we truly take off to the races again and kind of make a next major leg up. Because we still have to think about China. We want to see some closure there, which we should start to see some news here next couple of weeks. And then of course the government shutdown. We need to see that resolved. But I make the case that the longer the shutdown lasts, the more bullish it will be going in the 2026 because the probability of the Fed cutting rates two more times this year my opinion goes up substantially the longer this shutdown lasts.

So I think when you go in 2026, the market especially in the first quarter if we get two more rate cuts here, that's just adding fuel to the fire in regards to the amount of liquidity that's already in the system. So I don't think they have to do anything with interest rates in the first quarter of next year for markets to really take a major leg up. As long as they're narrative stays data dependent and that they're not gonna be raising rates, the market will be fine. I do think the big risk we have for 2026, which we'll have to deal with, either second quarter or third quarter, is growth is gonna accelerate so much in our opinion that inflation is going to really accelerate. And then they're going to have to make a decision between cracks in the labor market or inflation accelerating which one are they going to pick and right now we just don't know.

So when you have the liquidity dynamics that we have right now fundamentals really don't matter. You're going to have to follow trends technicals and money flows. And the thesis is really as simple as the fact that you have aggressive rate cuts in an environment that's not a recession. While the market's at an all time high, it's very rare to see that setup. So we know how it's going to end at some point in time. This bubble gets bigger and bigger. However, the last leg of bubbles generally is a very violent move up. And that's what we think we're going to see in the first half of 2026 because again, the Fed has pretty much said they're going to cut rates. Whether it's two more times or four more times doesn't matter. The bottom line in our opinion is you're going to increase liquidity at a time that one could argue the market doesn't necessarily need it. So it doesn't matter whether they need it or not. If they're going to do that it's going to cause risk assets to go up in a big way.

It has been a roller coaster, but we continue to make higher highs in the market. And so for our tactical strategies that we manage for our clients, we've stayed ever since April, we started aggressively buying back into the market. We've stayed long riskier assets. You want to go farther out on the risk spectrum in this type of environment. I think sometimes the biggest mistake people make is they jump off of their winners too soon, thinking that the top is in and trying to predict exact tops is impossible. So until the trends and the technicals break down, we think again this market, we're going to ride it as high as it will take us. And then the market will tell us when we've seen full exhaustion. You'll see rate of change in regards to interest rates kind of signal when there's going to be concerns as well too. But we think again the sweet spot here is at least until the end of the first quarter. So we don't want to jump off this bull market too soon when we think that the market is going to hit a lot higher and then we'll sell aggressively. I think that's the thing is if you're going to ride a bull market like this, you have to be willing to protect your capital. And that means sell as quickly as you bought when and if that time comes.

Well this is absolutely an AI-driven story, right? With the market whether the companies making profits or not AI they're buying forward expectations. So you want to stay in the AI trade. But we have expanded out to small caps that we put on back in May. We think small caps will beat the S&P. We've owned crypto ETF and our strategy. We want to be more on the higher growth side, and we have avoided consumer staples. We have avoided health care. We have really had very limited exposure to bonds because we think the ten year trend will be up and we took that money and put it into gold. So these are the areas in our opinion that will continue to have a catch-up bid because let's not forget a lot of people have been short small caps in some of these other areas because of a growth scare or because they think the market's going to have a correction. And I believe due to money flows, they're going to be forced to buy these assets when growth accelerates going in the next year to take them to new heights.

So it's interesting with Bitcoin is which is why we've added it as the correlation with the Nasdaq has broken down to a level that's the lowest level we've seen. The volatility even though with this crash that it's recently had or flash crashes you called it, the volatility overall has come down in Bitcoin and the adoption rate is increasing substantially in regards to institutions now allowing clients to invest in this becoming part of people's portfolios. So crypto to us in a bull market is an area that could inflate and be a leader. So we have introduced Bitcoin ETF into our tactical strategies. And now that will be the first thing that we sell when we feel like we're at a top because to me regardless crypto will be the one that probably drops the most when you go into the next bear market. So we think the current levels are actually a pretty good buying opportunity when we look out over the next six months as to where crypto as well as other growth areas should be.