Lyn Alden discusses the Iran conflict's uncertain resolution, the Fed's hawkish stance under new leadership, persistent large fiscal deficits, the structural bid for assets, the AI trade's sustainability and energy bottlenecks, and the dollar's breakout. She emphasizes fiscal dominance, stablecoins as marginal treasury demand, and the importance of energy infrastructure and hard assets.
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Lyn Alden Investment Strategy
8.0
Market Research Firm
Lyn Alden 8.5
Market Research Firm
Lyn Alden 8.5
6/25/2026 7:45:17 PM
dxy
Lyn says the dollar move is 'aggressive' and she 'wouldn't get in front of it right now', but expects it to 'flatline again' and trade in a 'choppy band' longer-term. Short-term bullish momentum but not sustainable.
metals
Lyn does not directly discuss gold, but Patrick's postgame analysis describes gold in a 'corrective phase' with 'lower highs, lower lows' and ongoing profit-taking. This is consistent with Lyn's broader macro view of dollar strength and rate hike expectations pressuring gold.
ndx
I still think this whole kind of capex cycle has legs to it... entities on the right side of capex spending are probably still going to be happy for the coming quarters.
rut
Lyn discusses a 'two-speed economy' where those not on the right side of AI capex or fiscal deficits are struggling. Small caps (RUT) are more exposed to domestic economy and higher rates, suggesting a sideways or underperforming trend.
wti
Lyn says oil at current price is 'rational' if Strait stays open, but she expects it to 'trend higher over time'. Near-term direction depends on Strait status, implying short-term downside risk but medium-term upside.
yields
Lyn says the Fed had to take a 'hawkish but vague tone' due to high inflation, and the market is repricing rate hike odds. This implies upward pressure on yields in the near term, though she expects the Fed to eventually look through energy inflation.
