AI Trade and Momentum (with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney)

5/13/2026 2:15:56 PM	short term up	5 days later	-2.57%	-2.57%
10/31/2025 6:48:45 PM	medium term up	21 days later	-4.23%	-4.23%
9/10/2025 6:14:37 PM	short term sharp up	5 days later	+1.17%	+1.76%

Your take on SpaceX and AI IPOs?

Tom Keene

Sebastian Page

IPOs are being well absorbed. We're bullish on US large cap growth. Russell 1000 large cap growth is at 22 P/E, down from 30. We're following AI bottlenecks: cooling, electrification, components, emerging markets.

300 analysts at T. Rowe Price doing research. End-user demand is there with billions of users.

Talk about momentum trading.

Paul Sweeney

Sebastian Page

Momentum is the strongest in 25 years. A simple strategy of buying top 10 performing stocks over 12 months, rebalanced monthly, has yielded 40% annualized over the S&P 500 for 3 years.

You either neutralize the risk or be aware if looking for mean reversion.

Does falling oil remove inflation risk?

Paul Sweeney

Sebastian Page

No, inflation risk is still there for 3-6 months. It might surprise on the upside even more because oil has come down - market pricing of inflation is too low.

Break-even one year is 1.7%, swap rate 2.2-2.3%. Last 3 months headline print is 8%, shelter annualizes 4.8%. Lagged effects from insurance, freight, transportation, fiscal stimulus.

Should listeners be concerned about concentration in large cap 401k portfolios?

Tom Keene

Sebastian Page

Revenues of those companies are quite diversified and robust. It might not be as big a risk as people think, but concentration is near an all-time high by historical standards.

Look at economic diversification of revenues and sustainability of cash flow generation.

SignalTube