Gold and Precious Metals Outlook (with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney)

Suki Cooper notes gold is fragile in the near term due to macro headwinds (strong dollar, rising real yields, ETF outflows) but structural drivers remain positive. Central bank buying continues with record 45% intending to increase reserves. She sees platinum undersupplied for years and copper benefiting from AI and electrification demand.

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Suki Cooper 8.0

Gold and Precious Metals Outlook (with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney)

dxy

Stronger dollar is one of the macro headwinds pressuring gold

metals

Gold price fragile in the near term

3 calls

+10

slightly better than random

3/10/2026 9:18:14 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-3.43%	+1.71%
1/29/2026 9:18:07 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+4.91%	+2.45%
10/22/2025 7:06:50 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-3.74%	+1.87%

Show all 3 metals results

Why do central banks want to buy gold?

Tom Keene
Suki Cooper

Historically three goals: stability, liquidity, returns. Now additional reasons: geopolitical risk diversification, store of value, hedge. Central banks have been the marginal buyer.

Central bank goal survey showed record 45% intending to increase gold reserves over next 12 months.
Gold is down 25% since January, below $4,000. What's going on?

Paul Sweeney
Suki Cooper

Lowest settlement since November 2025. Pivot from structural drivers to macro headwinds: real yields rising, dollar stronger, need for liquidity pressuring gold.

Combination of factors will keep gold fragile in near term, but beyond that we're still positive.
Is gold at $6,000?

Tom Keene
Suki Cooper

We haven't changed our forecast. Still have $5,150 as Q4 average. Near term fragile with India demand slowing and headwinds from real yields.
Record gold mining - is that bad for price?

Tom Keene
Suki Cooper

It hasn't been because the market has been keen to absorb all that supply. Recycling hasn't responded as much.
Where's value in precious metals?

Paul Sweeney
Suki Cooper

AI demand growth benefits silver and platinum. Platinum market likely undersupplied for next couple of years. Copper indicating demand growth around AI and electrification.

Looking at chips, electronics, hard disk drives - demand looks robust.
Is gold still linked to US dollar dynamics?

Tom Keene
Suki Cooper

Over past few weeks, correlation with dollar, real yields, and inflation expectations has become important again. It hadn't mattered since 2022 but now it's back.

Structural drivers that pushed gold higher will come back to forefront.
What does the lift in copper signal?

Tom Keene
Suki Cooper

Copper market indicates demand growth around AI and electrification of vehicles, data centers. Question is whether mine supply can keep pace.

Near term focus on US tariff review due by June 30.
Silver down 20% YTD - sympathy trade with gold?

Paul Sweeney
Suki Cooper

More exaggerated due to retail element. Retail demand moderated from start of year. ETFs turning negative. Market still undersupplied.

Silver does well with strong industrial AND investor demand.

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