Ray Dalio argues the US is past the point of no return on debt, with rising long-term yields and a weakening dollar signaling a stagflationary environment. He sees a classic bubble forming in AI/tech stocks, nearing 1929/2000 levels, with the pricking triggered by a need to convert wealth into money (e.g., due to debt or taxes). He also warns of geopolitical risks from US overextension and Taiwan/chip supply vulnerability.
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Bridgewater
9.5
Hedge Fund $92.00B
Ray Dalio 9.5
Hedge Fund $92.00B
Ray Dalio 9.5
6/3/2026 10:00:19 PM
dxy
You're seeing the weakening of the dollar.
| 12/12/2025 1:21:45 AM | medium term cautious down | 21 days later | +0.12% | -0.06% |
metals
When you see the weakening of the dollar, you see movements in gold and other assets. Money goes elsewhere, including to gold.
| 1/22/2026 3:08:23 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +9.48% | +14.22% |
| 1/22/2026 11:01:22 AM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +9.48% | +14.22% |
| 1/20/2026 3:46:50 PM | medium term up | 20 days later | -3.45% | -3.45% |
| 12/12/2025 1:21:45 AM | medium term up | 21 days later | +9.24% | +9.24% |
| 12/8/2025 8:36:49 AM | long term up | 62 days later | +25.97% | +25.97% |
| 11/20/2025 8:17:28 PM | long term cautious up | 60 days later | +39.54% | +19.77% |
| 10/7/2025 6:43:06 PM | short term sharp up | 5 days later | +2.72% | +4.07% |
ndx
We are rising close to the same bubble level as 2000 and 1929. The bubble will be pricked when wealth needs to be converted into money.
| 9/5/2025 10:03:29 PM | short term cautious down | 7 days later | +2.24% | -1.12% |
rut
Dalio warns of a broad stock market pressure from rising rates and a bubble bursting. Small caps (RUT) are typically more vulnerable to credit tightening and economic slowdown.
wti
Dalio discusses geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz and US overextension, implying potential supply disruptions and volatility in oil markets.
yields
Long rates are rising relative to short rates. There is pressure in interest rates.
| 10/28/2025 6:48:16 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.60% | -0.80% |
| 10/28/2025 5:45:08 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | +1.60% | -0.80% |
| 10/7/2025 5:06:45 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -3.54% | +1.77% |
| 9/22/2025 6:10:27 PM | medium term cautious down | 20 days later | -1.67% | +0.84% |
