Shutdown's End Could Bring Eco Data | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 11/11/2025

Yields cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX down , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Renaissance Macro Research 8.0
Hedge Fund
Neil Dutta 9.0

Shutdown's End Could Bring Eco Data | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 11/11/2025

ndx

The Nasdaq composite down 42 points but well off its worst levels of the session. Nvidia shares down 2.6% after SoftBank sold its entire stake, contributing to tech weakness. Rotation out of high valued tech names and concerns about AI bubble show short-term pressure on Nasdaq.

2 calls

+6

slightly better than random

8/21/2025 1:44:33 AM	short term down	5 days later	+0.29%	-0.29%

yields

Inflation is 3% this year, 3% last year. Underlying inflation is probably slowing. The Fed should continue to cut interest rates here. Unemployment rate is increasing ahead of schedule indicating weakening labor market and downside risk to growth; inflation is stable or slowing, supporting rate cuts.

6 calls

-+0

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

10/25/2025 12:05:01 AM	short term sharp down	7 days later	+2.73%	-4.09%
10/16/2025 11:32:27 PM	medium term sharp down	20 days later	+2.15%	-3.22%
9/9/2025 5:01:53 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.05%	-0.02%

Show all 3 yields results

We do have one more meeting of the year in December. This is happening as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appearing earlier and making some comments and kind of deflecting on inflation. So we're going to get into all of that with Renaissance Macro's Neil Dutta.

Carol Massar
Neil Dutta

I tend to concern myself more with the direction as opposed to the magnitude. I think we're probably at the Fed's estimate for the unemployment rate for year-end already, a couple months ahead of schedule. That's not necessarily a good thing. My sense is the speed of the weakness has picked up a little bit. I'm probably at 4.5% unemployment rate if it were to come out.
Neil Dutta

Inflation is 3% this year, 3% last year, and the difference between this year and last year is tariffs. That would tell me underlying inflation is probably slowing. The Fed should continue to cut interest rates here.
Neil Dutta

Employment tends to evolve potentially in nonlinear ways. Once an increase in the unemployment rate gets going, it tends to keep on going. There is more downside risk to the labor market than upside risk to inflation. I think that's what the Fed and markets might be missing.
The Dow is up more than 1% but the Nasdaq a bit lower as investors moved some money out of those high valued tech names.

Tim Stenovec
The Nasdaq composite down 42 points but well off its worst levels of the session.

Alexis Christoforous
Norah Mulinda

Shares of Nvidia down 2.6%. We're seeing this after SoftBank said it would be selling its entire $5.8 billion stake in the company. The ongoing discussion right now about a potential AI bubble is underscoring concerns about the stock.

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