Crude oil has really been under a lot of pressure for the last two weeks. Today's lower close is going to be the ninth lower close out of the last 10 sessions.
Introduction to the show and overview of Wednesday's market action: grains bounced back, livestock turned around, precious metals and energy markets were active.
Marlon Bowling
Oliver Sloup
Corn's price action after the USDA report (188.8 yield, +2M acres) shows the market had already priced in bearish numbers, suggesting a potential low is forming.
The lack of follow-through selling after the report indicates expectations were already high, and the opportunity lies in a potential regression of those higher yields.
Asks if December corn is hugging critical support.
Marlon Bowling
Oliver Sloup
December corn is at an inflection point; $4 is key psychological/technical resistance, with next resistance at 408-411. A breakout above these levels could make things interesting.
The path of least resistance has been lower, but consecutive closes above 408-411 would be bullish.
Notes November soybeans bounced and exceeded a retracement level, unsure where upside resistance is.
Marlon Bowling
Oliver Sloup
Soybeans had a fundamental and technical turnaround: the USDA report reduced acres/production, and the chart broke above trendline resistance (1012) and moving averages. Next targets are 1044 (gap fill), 1058, and 1075-1080.
The market defended trendline support at 982, then broke out, changing the narrative. This is a very important time of year for soybeans.
Questions the idea of being 'swimming in soybeans' after the big South American crop.
Marlon Bowling
Oliver Sloup
While there are ample soybeans, the reduction in US acres/production changes the tone. Additionally, headline risk regarding Chinese trade keeps shorts nervous and could provide a tailwind.
Headlines from President Trump, even without substance, cause buying activity. This could continue over the next few weeks.
Oliver Sloup
Wheat has had too many false bounces; it's a 'dead duck'. $5 is key support, but bulls need to clear 521-525 to change the tone. Bears have control.
For those trying to pick a bottom, using options is recommended for limited risk.
Comments on wheat's historical spikes being rare (every ~14 years). Shifts to livestock, asking what happened in cattle.
Marlon Bowling
Oliver Sloup
Cattle markets are extremely volatile with large daily ranges (live cattle ~$4, feeder cattle ~$6) happening in minutes. This is due to lopsided fund positioning, leading to cascading selling when they exit.
Profit-taking and risk-adjusting ahead of Secretary Rollins' speech on Friday (screwworm/Mexico border) and seasonal weakness in August are adding to nervousness.
Asks if cattle options are affordable.
Marlon Bowling
Oliver Sloup
Options have 'sticker shock' due to high contract values, but volatility is high, making premiums expensive. On a percentage basis, they are manageable.
Notes lean hogs are coiling and tested the range today.
Marlon Bowling
Oliver Sloup
Lean hogs are consolidating between the 50-day (resistance) and 20-day (support) moving averages. He has a short bias seasonally but sees no clear signal; prefers to sell higher or buy lower.
Asks about precious metals, noting gold faded after being higher and is now floundering sideways.
Marlon Bowling
Oliver Sloup
Gold is in a trading range, rejecting the top near $3500 multiple times. He is a long-term bull but recommends waiting for a pullback to buy, as patience may pay in the middle of the range.
He holds physical gold and silver, so he is eternally optimistic but sees the market as tradable right now.
Notes weakness in energy markets, specifically crude oil, and its importance for fall harvest (diesel, natural gas for grain dryers).
Marlon Bowling
Oliver Sloup
Crude oil has been under heavy pressure (9 lower closes in 10 sessions) due to a bearish inventory report (big build). $62 is a key support level (old resistance). The Trump-Putin meeting could add to the pressure.
The bulls need to defend $62 into the weekend. The energy complex will be interesting after the meeting.
Compliments the charts and asks about access.
Marlon Bowling
Oliver Sloup
The Blue Line Edge platform is available to clients or via demo. It covers agricultural and outside markets.
Mentions Oliver will be on the annual crop tour next week.
Marlon Bowling
Oliver Sloup
He will be on the eastern leg of the crop tour (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota), which is a lot of work but valuable for firsthand field checks.