Trading headlines is different from trading what's actually happening. The Strait of Hormuz is not moving; ships are getting hit by mines. Even if it opens, shipping may never return to normal, as seen in the Bab el Mandeb Strait two years later. Barring destruction of IRGC assets, no return to normal for many years.

The president's statements are contradictory and cannot both be true. Markets are taking headlines at face value rather than looking at the underlying reality.

Not sure the end is in sight soon. Negotiating positions are intractable, both sides stubborn. US commercial stocks are drawing down rapidly, which is the cushion. Without that, we are living paycheck to paycheck. If something disrupts supply at low levels, shortages could drive prices up even more. As summer approaches, likelihood of a shortage situation increases.

A material change like another round of bombing could alter the calculus, but otherwise we are in a holding pattern.