We're expecting another 137,000 barrel a day increase for December, basically similar to previous months. However, the actual barrels coming to market might be half of that because most producers have maxed out capacity except Saudi Arabia. Market concerns include oil on the water stories and potential supply from Saudi and UAE, but the bigger issue is the enforcement of sanctions on Russian oil and the military buildup in Venezuela. OPEC Plus is likely to be cautious and adopt a watch-and-wait approach depending on sanctions enforcement.

There are two views. Some analysts and producers say oversupply in early next year due to production increases, e.g., in Guyana. But international company heads like Aramco’s Amin Nasser believe demand remains strong. Wildcards include continued Chinese strategic petroleum reserve buying and the seriousness of sanctions enforcement on Russian exports. If sanctions are rigorously enforced, up to 1 to 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil could be taken off the market, impacting supply. Ultimately, it depends on U.S. enforcement rigor.