Rates are unhinged on geopolitical fears, energy pass-through to core inflation, and fiscal rot. 5% on the 30Y is the pain threshold for stocks; 10Y is testing 4.75%. Watch the real yield breakout: if breakevens widen in tandem, it’s a sovereign crisis in the making. If they compress, risk can absorb it. Market conviction is zero, with weekend event risk keeping books light. The curve is the key macro story for the rest of the year.

explicit

implicit
Oil
Metals
USD
BMO 7.0
Investment Bank $350.00B
Ian Lyngen 9.0
5/15/2026 7:48:09 PM
yields
5% level for the long bond that matters... 30 year at 5.10%... 10 year at 4.55% breaks out... 5 handle on the 30 year is troubling... we're right up against it at 4.75%
4/24/2026 10:27:19 PM short term cautious down 7 days later +2.54% -1.27%
1/21/2026 3:54:53 PM medium term up 20 days later -1.81% -1.81%
9/29/2025 1:46:24 PM short term cautious down 6 days later +0.34% -0.17%
8/28/2025 6:59:01 PM medium term cautious up 20 days later -2.91% -1.45%

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