Why the slowdown in Turkey's economy in Q1 2026?

Turkish GDP has been slowing for four quarters, which is expected from tight monetary policy. The problem is inflation remains well above 30%, making it extremely difficult to lower rates. This combination of slowing growth and high inflation is politically challenging for Erdogan.

What does the opposition look like after Turkish courts unseated its leader?

The opposition is facing a fresh leadership crisis after its younger generation of leaders were ousted by courts. It is extremely difficult to see how they can mount a credible challenge to Erdogan if he calls a snap vote before 2028.