FOMO and frothy tech positioning ahead of Nvidia earnings (with Vonnie Quinn)

Tech is a FOMO-driven "crash up," not a stable melt-up. Positioning is dangerously frothy, with NVDA call skew inverted—a classic late-stage signal. The low VIX is a mirage, distorted by the call buying frenzy. The real macro threat is the inevitable bleed from persistent bond vol into equity vol. The party continues on borrowed time, but the structure is brittle and the eventual unwind will be violent.

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FOMO and frothy tech positioning ahead of Nvidia earnings (with Vonnie Quinn)

Introduces Amy Silverman's note on a 'shopping spree for calls' in tech, moving from wait-and-see to FOMO.

Vonnie Quinn
Amy Wu Silverman

I'm a little concerned. Positioning has shifted; many have jumped in. Momentum on the FOMO chase is getting frothy.

If you've been under-positioned, your risk is to the right tail. We have to wait for Nvidia's print, but signs of froth are appearing.
Asks about Nvidia positioning and whether the pattern of sell-offs after beats will change.

Vonnie Quinn
Amy Wu Silverman

We are in skew inversion: so much call optimism that call implied vol outweighs put vol. The sheer scale of Nvidia makes momentum harder. I would never count Nvidia out, but we need to see if the AI trade flags.

Last few quarters were different from earlier ones. The scale of Nvidia makes big moves more difficult.
Asks about SpaceX IPO and market sentiment.

Vonnie Quinn
Amy Wu Silverman

Fast track IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) can continue the momentum trade. The retail bid that came back after April could still give a punch to this rally.

That's not just next month, but towards end of year if big IPOs happen in 2026.
Asks if the VIX is broken or telling us something different.

Vonnie Quinn
Amy Wu Silverman

VIX is influenced by call option bidding ('spot up, vol up'), so a move in VIX doesn't necessarily mean fear. There is still a lot of dispersion under the surface.

You have to be wary of the translation mechanism. On the surface not much is happening, but a lot is happening under the surface.
Notes that stocks that have rallied have higher volatility than those that are down, suggesting an 'up-crash' is possible.

Vonnie Quinn
Amy Wu Silverman

This hasn't been a melt-up, it's been a 'crash up' — less stable. Higher volatility on the upside.

Study since March 30 shows higher realized volatility on the upside buckets.
Asks if the normal environment includes massive moves in stocks like Intel, memory chip makers, Cisco.

Vonnie Quinn
Amy Wu Silverman

No, this is not normal. Outsized realized moves relative to implied. Bond volatility tends to bleed into equity vol eventually. I think it will happen, just a question of when. Until then, the party continues.

Everyone has managed to look through the bad for the good. But bond vol history suggests it will bleed into equities. Momentum factor will flag.

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