Nvidia earnings and chip supply risks (with Vonnie Quinn)

NVDA earnings are the focal point, with a 5.5% move priced. Key risks: China guidance and custom chip competition as growth is set to halve over two years. The under-the-radar tail risk is a Samsung strike. A fab shutdown means a 6-month recovery, catastrophic given extreme demand and +600% price spikes on some chips. The entire AI trade faces a critical 24hr test from both a demand guidance and supply shock perspective. High vol is the base case for NDX.

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Neil Camping 3.0

Nvidia earnings and chip supply risks (with Vonnie Quinn)

Asks what red or amber flags to look for in Nvidia earnings.

Vonnie Quinn
Neil Camping

Key questions: any guidance increase factoring in China? Any signs that custom chips (Google, ARM) are eating into demand? The numbers are huge: $7B revenue, 80% growth, but growth rate expected to halve over two years. Traders pricing 5.5% move either way.

Nvidia's market cap is larger than entire country indexes in Europe (e.g., FTSE 100, DAX).
Asks about Samsung union strike and chip supply constraints.

Vonnie Quinn
Neil Camping

Massive concern. If fabs go offline, it can take up to six months to return to full production. Demand is extremely high, pricing is high. We cannot afford supply disruption risks. The next 24 hours are critical for the whole AI trade.

Chip prices have risen 600% in some cases over the last six months. Inflationary impacts are already a worry.

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