Family offices remain constructive on equities, underpinned by strong earnings growth (24% this year, 13% next). They are not making meaningful portfolio shifts despite short-term volatility. AI infrastructure is a key theme, with over 80% of family offices adding AI exposure. They favor US assets but are diversifying into healthcare and bank stocks, and selectively into emerging markets.

The general believes Iran is not serious about negotiations and is using diversions (Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon) to delay. He argues military success alone will not lead to strategic victory; a comprehensive approach using all elements of national power is needed. The Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon are not core issues but diversions from the nuclear program.

Consumers are still spending despite inflation and geopolitical headwinds. There is a trade-down happening (Ross, Walmart), but brands with innovation are driving full-price sales. Upcoming events (NBA finals, World Cup, America's 250) will provide experiences that drive spending. The back half of 2026 could see discretionary perform well, potentially aided by tariff refunds.

The CPI print is disturbing for everyday consumers as expenses are now outweighing paychecks. Duke does not expect immediate Fed action but believes credibility to control inflation is key. She expects new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to remain a hawk but tackle inflation differently. She questions whether the Fed has the will or ability to control inflation after years below target. The size of the federal debt is a growing concern that will push rates up regardless of Fed action.

Oracle's Q4 numbers were objectively strong (OCI growth 92%, RPO $638B), but the market is jittery about how Oracle will pay for CapEx, component price inflation, and concentration risk with OpenAI. The guidance for Q1 cloud revenue growth of 57% is strong, but the market needs more clarity on CapEx and diversification strategy. Oracle is most levered to the AI infrastructure trade.