Telsey on consumer and retail (with Romaine Bostick, Katie Greifeld)

Consumers are still spending despite inflation and geopolitical headwinds. There is a trade-down happening (Ross, Walmart), but brands with innovation are driving full-price sales. Upcoming events (NBA finals, World Cup, America's 250) will provide experiences that drive spending. The back half of 2026 could see discretionary perform well, potentially aided by tariff refunds.

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Telsey Advisory Group 6.0
Financial Advisory
Dana Telsey 7.5

Telsey on consumer and retail (with Romaine Bostick, Katie Greifeld)

rut

Telsey is positive on consumer spending and sees potential for discretionary to perform well in the back half of 2026, which would benefit the more domestically-focused Russell 2000.

Asks about retail earnings, noting Ralph Lauren's strong results and bullish outlook despite gas price concerns.

Romaine Bostick
Dana Telsey

Ralph Lauren has wider appeal across younger and older consumers, improved products and stores, and global improvement. Ross Stores also saw 17% comps, with a long runway for growth, especially on the East Coast.

Look at what they're doing with sponsoring sporting events like Wimbledon and the Olympics.
Asks if there is a trade-down happening in the broader economy.

Katie Greifeld
Dana Telsey

Yes, you are seeing a trade-down at Ross, TJX, Burlington, and Walmart. Better brands are available at off-price. But brands with innovation are driving full-price sales, like Victoria's Secret with low double-digit increases in core categories.

The focus on value remains very relevant for off-price.
Asks if persistent gas prices factor into the outlook for discretionary spend.

Romaine Bostick
Dana Telsey

We watch it carefully. Data points are holding up week over week. With earnings guidance reaffirmed and potential benefit of tariff refunds, we could see discretionary perform well in the back half of 2026.

Upcoming events like the NBA finals, America's 250, and the World Cup give consumers experiences, and when they have experiences, they typically buy things.

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