New Fed Chair Warsh inherits an inflation problem, making cuts impossible. The debate has pivoted to the timing of the next hike, a view reinforced by Waller. Warsh's first test is to scrub the easing bias from the statement and deliver a hawkish dot plot. De-anchoring inflation expectations are the primary risk, with geopolitical conflict providing a structural bid for oil. Expect a tactical pivot, not a strategic overhaul of the Fed's framework.