Iran Conflict & Geopolitical Risk (with Joe Matthew)

US/Iran escalation risk is acute into Memorial Day weekend. Hawkish DC rhetoric meets Iran's ability to activate proxies (Houthis, Hezbollah) in <3 days. The UAE nuke plant drone attack is the playbook for asymmetric strikes, putting a sharp, short-term bid under WTI. The only off-ramp is a diplomatic deal, possibly ceding Hormuz control to Iran as a 'tollbooth' in a mini-deal. This is the real 'finish the job' scenario, not total war.

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Michelle Brossard 7.0

Iran Conflict & Geopolitical Risk (with Joe Matthew)

wti

Risk of escalation is high; we could be back at war on Memorial Day; three days is enough for Iran to activate proxies.

4/29/2026 2:42:39 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-5.73%	-2.86%

Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker says US should 'finish the job' in Iran; President Trump may resume strikes this weekend.

Joe Matthew
Michelle Brossard

Risk of escalation is high over the long weekend; finishing the job likely means a comprehensive deal, not eliminating Iranian military; diplomatic deal possible but heading toward escalation.

Iran has proxy options in Iraq, Houthis, Hezbollah; a drone attack on UAE nuke plant shows Iran's reach; three days is enough for Iran to activate proxies.
Iran only needs to be right once; a drone at a nuke plant changes the landscape; how do you compete with that?

Joe Matthew
Michelle Brossard

You can't compete; must get to diplomatic deal; incremental mini-deal possible where Iran controls strait as tollbooth while working on nuclear issues.

Escalation won't solve the problem; diplomacy is needed.

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