Karen Young is cautious on a quick US-Iran deal, noting it's a streamlined attempt to resume Strait of Hormuz flows, not a nuclear resolution. She expects 3-4 months for oil production resumption and sees the end of the year as a best-case scenario for normal traffic. She advises watching diesel/jet fuel prices more than Brent.
Yields
NDX
RUT

explicit
Metals
USD
Columbia University 1.8
University
Karen Young 7.5
5/25/2026 8:26:31 AM
wti
I would pay more attention to the price spike that we're seeing in diesel and jet fuel, rather than in gasoline, rather than what we're seeing in movements of Brent right now.
3 calls
+5
slightly better than random
Tracy Chen argues the global bond selloff is not purely driven by the Iran war but by structural factors: term premium repricing, neutral rate repricing, fiscal indiscipline, and aging demographics. She sees 10-year yields reaching 4.75-5% and 30-year yields 5.5-6%. She favors EM bonds like Philippines over DM bonds.

explicit
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals

implicit
Brandywine Global 7.8
Asset Manager $55.00B
Tracy Chen 8.5
5/25/2026 8:26:31 AM
dxy
The interviewee notes the CNY has appreciated against the USD, implying USD weakness, but the overall tone on the dollar is not explicitly bearish. The Fed is on hold, which suggests a sideways dollar in the near term.
yields
If you look at ten year, I think four and 75 or even five, I think that that could be the the next step. And 30 year, I think between five and half to six is not too far off.
1 calls
+2
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
Yan Wong advises chasing the AI momentum as the boom is not over, using a barbell strategy: Asia tech (Korea, Taiwan, China) on one side and commodity-intensive Latam/Indonesia on the other. He sees a strong long-term case for RMB appreciation (20-30% over multi-year horizon) due to China's rapid productivity growth benefiting consumers, leading to deflation and an undervalued currency.
Yields

explicit
Oil

explicit
USD
Alpine Macro 1.0
Other
Yan Wong 8.0
5/25/2026 8:26:31 AM
metals
Metal prices have been very resilient. We still believe metal prices will continue to rally.
ndx
The AI boom is probably not over. There is still some room to run. The bull market still has legs.
1 calls
+6
slightly better than random
rut
The interviewee favors Asia tech including China, and the AI boom is driving a broad tech rally. The RUT (Russell 2000) is not explicitly mentioned, but the positive sentiment on tech and the 'barbell' strategy including commodity plays suggests a cautiously positive view on small-cap tech.
Catherine Thorbecke discusses DeepSeek's permanent 75% discount on its V4 Pro model, which pressures Silicon Valley pricing and threatens Chinese competitors' profitability. She highlights Japan as a country to watch for AI adoption due to its tight labor market and shrinking workforce, giving it a second-mover advantage.
Yields

implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
Bloomberg 5.5
Financial Media
Catherine Thorbecke 4.0
5/25/2026 8:26:31 AM
ndx
The discussion on AI pricing wars (DeepSeek vs. OpenAI/Anthropic) suggests increased competition and potential margin pressure for US AI leaders, but the overall AI boom continues. The cautious up reflects the competitive pressure but ongoing growth.
106 calls
+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)