Iran Deal and Energy Market Outlook (with Yvonne Man, Avril Hong)

4/30/2026 10:27:44 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-6.73%	-10.09%
4/27/2026 5:59:34 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+6.49%	+9.74%
4/23/2026 10:51:08 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+7.17%	+3.59%

Asks about the assessment of the US-Iran deal and how quickly oil prices could revert to normal if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

Avril Hong

Karen Young

The deal is a streamlined attempt to resume LNG and crude flows, not a resolution of the nuclear dispute. Normalization to pre-crisis levels will take 3-4 months, and even then, output may not reach 80% of normal for months.

Markets are reacting favorably to any move away from military conflict, but this does not mean things get back to normal. The resumption of oil production from wells will take time, and pipeline diversions will remain constant.

Asks about the longer-term ramifications and how states are adjusting to alternative energy sources.

Avril Hong

Karen Young

Buyers are already thinking about alternatives and building new storage and refining capacity. Producers are also seeking to avoid being strangled by the Strait. The White House recognizes the threat to the global economy and the critical inventory drawdown levels by mid-June.

The effort is an extension of a 30-day ceasefire with an additional 30 days to negotiate the nuclear issue. Iran's priority is access to withheld funds in Qatar and Turkey.

Asks about China emerging as a winner in the energy crisis and how beneficial this could be for Beijing.

Yvonne Man

Karen Young

China was well-prepared with a large crude stockpile and has restricted refined product exports. They are using the crisis to secure longer-term supply chain deals for renewable energy products, presenting a huge opportunity for the Chinese renewable supply chain.

Countries in East Asia are desperate for jet fuel, diesel, and LPG, and China is making side concessions to export some product in exchange for agreements on renewable energy.

Asks about the path for energy prices, specifically if Brent can go back to 90 or stay in a range.

Yvonne Man

Karen Young

It depends on the threat perception of neighbors. Even 5-10 very large tankers per day would make a difference, but it won't change inventory or refined product shortage status. Pay more attention to price spikes in diesel and jet fuel than in Brent.

The resumption of traffic will take months to unwind, and the current movements in Brent are less significant than the shortages in specific refined products.

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