There has been progress on a temporary ceasefire, with both sides near a deal. The key question is whether a deal is locked in and what the first 30 days look like for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The hardest part remains the nuclear file and potential financial relief for Iran.

The deal may open the strait but hasn't addressed the trickiest parts of the negotiation.

Vessels are using spoofing and other techniques to avoid detection. About a quarter of very large oil tankers have exited the Persian Gulf over three months, but the flow rate through the strait is still dramatically less than 10% of pre-war levels. These are much-needed barrels for a starved global energy system.

We can assess they've gotten out because eventually their transponders are turned on or they deliver their oil.

If an MOU is in place with a gradual lifting of the closure, and ships are confident they can get through without hitting mines, we will likely see an exit of laden vessels. The real question is whether empty vessels will travel back into the Persian Gulf to rebuild.

There's a different risk profile for getting out versus going back in.

Mine removal is a technical question with some onus on Iran. It's not the biggest impediment to travel out of the strait, as vessels have been making it through without severe mine incidents. However, resuming traffic to near pre-war levels is a different story.

Our assessment is it will be very challenging. Iran is in a stronger negotiating position than in 2015, having shown they can control traffic to the Strait of Hormuz and built a network to avoid US sanctions. The president has dropped demands on Iran's missile program and proxy support, focusing on reopening the strait, which wasn't even an issue in 2015. The JCPOA took 20 months of highly technical negotiation, which the Trump administration has not undertaken.

They've relied on a core group of high-level political advisors rather than technical negotiators.

That analysis makes sense. Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz can do real damage to the global economy without requiring a history-changing event like a nuclear strike. As long as Iran maintains its missile and drone program, it can exercise this lever flexibly and precisely.

They can temporarily pull back or limit the types of ships allowed through.