Small business resilience and uncertainty (with Christina Ruffini, Tim Stenovec)

Asks how small businesses are doing overall.

Christina Ruffini

Liz Wilkie

Small businesses are in a pretty solid position. 55% feel good or fantastic about their business, but only 25% feel very good about the economy. They face rising costs and uncertainty, even though their own financials look good.

Asks if there's a disconnect between what small businesses say and what they actually do.

Tim Stenovec

Liz Wilkie

There is a disconnect. Survey intent to invest or hire has stabilized, but actual Chase payroll data shows a four-month upward trend in businesses expanding payrolls since January. Despite uncertainty, they are taking actions suggesting resilience.

Asks how big a factor uncertainty is, especially around tariffs, for small business planning.

Christina Ruffini

Liz Wilkie

In the short term, uncertainty is manageable. Businesses plan 1-3 quarters ahead and are reactive. They can't think a year or two ahead. They are cutting non-essential expenses, which are often investment expenses, suggesting long-term investments may be on the back burner.

When surveyed about price increases, many said they were cutting non-essential expenses.

Asks about the importance of new business creation and the generational gap with retiring owners.

Christina Ruffini

Liz Wilkie

New business creation has increased since COVID, signaling people see opportunity. 40% of business owners plan to retire in the next decade, but only 8% are ready. Their top goals are preserving employee jobs, maximizing sale value, and maintaining community impact. This creates an opportunity for entrepreneurship through acquisition.

People over 55 are 25% of the workforce but own over half of US small businesses.

Asks how often private equity is involved in these transitions.

Tim Stenovec

Liz Wilkie

Private equity may not align with owners' goals of maintaining local feel and preserving jobs. Finding alternatives with trusted advisors is increasingly important. JPMorgan Chase is expanding business bankers and contributing $80 billion in new funding to help grow and transition these businesses.

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