Stocks Bounce Back as Trump Softens China Trade Stance; Trump in Israel | Bloomberg Brief 10/13/2025

Yields cautious down , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

NDX up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

RUT up

Oil

Metals sharp up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

USD cautious up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Mizuho 8.0
Investment Bank $2100.00B
Jordan Rochester 9.0

Stocks Bounce Back as Trump Softens China Trade Stance; Trump in Israel | Bloomberg Brief 10/13/2025

US 10y; $SPY

dxy

Dollar strengthening again today as Euro heads toward 116, but with some risk of squeeze given consensus positioning. Dollar rally is under test and probably short lived given macro dynamics.

metals

American rare earth miners up 20-25%, critical metals also strongly up amid concerns over China's export controls. Market expects continued geopolitical tensions over rare earths boosting US miner stocks.

ndx

Nasdaq 100 futures are rebounding strongly after Friday's 3.5% decline, with tech stocks like Nvidia leading gains. Investors are buying the dip in tech stocks amidst mixed market sentiment.

8/11/2025 11:39:22 PM	short term up	6 days later	-0.53%	-0.53%

yields

We saw a 10 basis point decline across the yield curve on Friday. The bond market is closed today but the test comes when it reopens. Politics and trade talks are influencing yields now. Market caution due to geopolitical risk and trade tensions, with uncertainty about whether the recent decline in yields will persist.

9/27/2025 1:39:47 AM	short term sharp up	7 days later	+0.51%	+0.76%

The bond market is closed for the holiday, but we dropped 10 basis points across the yield curve on Friday. We started with the 10 year at 4.13 and closed at 4.03. Do we see a reversal tomorrow when the market reopens?

Vonnie Quinn
Jordan Rochester

The bond market has several factors affecting it including geopolitics and trade talks. Friday was a big wake-up call, and while there was some rebound, the real test will be when the US market opens. The olive branch toward China gives hope for negotiations.
The dollar is strengthening again today, euro weakening toward 116. How risky is the consensus trade and could a squeeze affect markets?

Vonnie Quinn
Jordan Rochester

The consensus trade is under real test. Since 'liberation day,' investors have been short dollar and long euro. Now some flipping occurs but the dollar bounce might be short-term due to strong US consumer fundamentals offsetting Europe's weakening indicators.
We have soft data this week, CPI next week. Is this enough for the Fed to gain visibility on policy?

Vonnie Quinn
Jordan Rochester

The Fed likely remains on autopilot for a rate cut barring very strong or very weak signals. Alternative data show conflicting trends, but CPI is expected to be hot. Tariffs will feed through to inflation in coming months, with a peak possibly by April.
What about metals? Rare earth miners are flying with big gains today.

Vonnie Quinn
Valerie Tytel

US-listed rare earth miners are up 20-25%. Markets may be pricing in no rollback on China's export controls or expect quicker US government action. Strong tech rebounds also evident.
Jordan Rochester

The escalation in rare earth controls could pose supply issues and inflationary pressures. But the market seems to expect some moderation given strategic importance and US business sentiment.

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