US Stocks Rally on Tech Gains and Fed Rate Cut Hopes | The Close 11/24/2025

Yields cautious down , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

NDX up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Morgan Stanley 8.4
Investment Bank $1600.00B
Jim Caron 9.0

US Stocks Rally on Tech Gains and Fed Rate Cut Hopes | The Close 11/24/2025

ndx

Equities probably shows the most potential for upside. I don't think we're priced really for what I would expect in 2026 to be more of a broadening of the market. The other 493, not just the Mag 7 Expects market broadening beyond tech megacaps to drive equity gains in 2026, with economic recovery and reduced headwinds supporting overall market upside

26 calls

+3

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

11/25/2025 12:34:15 AM	short term up	5 days later	+0.42%	+0.42%
11/24/2025 4:43:34 PM	long term up	62 days later	+2.78%	+2.78%
11/22/2025 1:57:04 AM	medium term up	21 days later	+0.78%	+0.78%
11/14/2025 8:08:25 PM	medium term up	21 days later	+3.34%	+3.34%
11/7/2025 11:22:11 PM	short term up	7 days later	-3.17%	-3.17%
11/4/2025 2:20:08 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-2.35%	+1.17%
11/3/2025 5:11:21 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-2.21%	-2.21%
10/31/2025 9:47:56 PM	short term up	7 days later	-1.39%	-1.39%
10/31/2025 3:02:13 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	-4.23%	-2.12%
10/21/2025 3:40:54 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+2.63%	+2.63%
10/14/2025 9:08:43 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+2.79%	+2.79%
10/2/2025 9:07:28 AM	medium term up	20 days later	+1.26%	+1.26%
9/23/2025 3:45:06 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.31%	+0.31%
9/22/2025 11:26:50 PM	short term cautious up	6 days later	+0.13%	+0.06%
9/8/2025 9:33:32 PM	short term up	6 days later	+1.90%	+1.90%
9/4/2025 5:07:54 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+3.15%	+3.15%
9/4/2025 9:41:48 AM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+3.15%	-1.57%
8/18/2025 11:36:07 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+1.61%	+1.61%
8/7/2025 5:16:29 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.39%	+0.39%
8/5/2025 10:59:28 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+0.90%	+0.90%

Show all 20 ndx results

yields

States fixed income spreads very tight and rates have come down, suggesting limited further downside for yields. Also mentions Fed policy expectations already priced in, indicating yields near bottom

Asking about Fed outlook for December meeting and 2026 given market pricing volatility

Katie Greifeld
Jim Caron

December Fed cut probability swinging from 30% to 70% shows market has no clue - it's 50-50, will be a close call

Last week there was about 30% probability that the Fed was going to cut 25 basis points in December. Now it's 70%. It tells you the market has no clue. I don't care what the numbers say. It is 50-50
Jim Caron

2026 will be better than 2025 which is the soft patch - economic data was supposed to slow down and did slow down but was masked by equities making new highs

This is when economic data was supposed to slow down, it did slow down, but it was masked by the fact that equities kept making new all-time highs. But the data, it wasn't really that strong
Jim Caron

2026 recovery driven by loss of headwinds: tariffs already set, tax policy understood, inflation coming down, plus fiscal stimulus

Number one, you don't have tariffs. Tariffs are pretty much already set in motion. Second is that you ultimately understand the tax policy at this point. Inflation is not going to be as much of a headwind. We expect inflation to start to come down
Jim Caron

Labor market will get stronger but weaker first - real unemployment around 4.8-4.9%, expect to get there with weak momentum into 2026 Q1 then recovery

I understand that the unemployment rate is 4.4% based on the latest data. If you ask me, I think the real number is somewhere around 4.8 or 4.9. I fully expect us to get there. I have a much more sanguine view on labor but I think it's temporary
Jim Caron

Overweight equities vs fixed income - fixed income spreads very tight, rates have come down, almost priced to perfection

We think that fixed income just spreads very tight. Rates have come down. I think we're already pricing about a 3.5% Fed funds being moved down and Fed policy maybe a little bit lower than that. So I think we're almost priced to perfection
Jim Caron

Equities show most upside potential for 2026 market broadening beyond Mag 7 to other 493 stocks

On the equity side though, I don't think we're priced really for what I would expect in 2026 to be more of a broadening of the market. The other 493, not just the Mag 7
Jim Caron

Private equity looks better than private credit currently - bad news and valuation arguments in past, private credit still has worry

On the private equity side, a lot of the bad news, a lot of the valuation arguments, those were in the past years right now. I think we're coming out of that. In private credit, we're still hearing more and more talks about this and there's still a lot of worry in the markets
Jim Caron

No spillover from private credit to public credit markets - default risks stay low with no recession in 2026

We're not seeing evidence of that. Default risks in our view, no recession in 2026, default risks we still think stay relatively low. People are yield buyers of credit right now. Spreads are tight
Jim Caron

Cash demand driven by market fragility with narrow leadership - catalyst to move off sidelines is market broadening for diversification

Whenever you see the markets go up with narrow leadership what that means is that the markets have become increasingly fragile. They need to see the markets broaden out. It can't just be about seven stocks. It's got to be about the other 493

SignalTube

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