Strong tech leads from US (Micron +10%, Teradyne +7%, NVIDIA $85B bond demand) are driving Asian semi-conductor stocks. Low volatility allows high dispersion trading, and credit bullishness from NVIDIA's debt raising feeds back into equity rally via semi-capex. Momentum is strong as macro concerns around Iran/inflation recede.

Yen at 160 despite everything else rallying against dollar on peace deal, showing immense pressure on BOJ to hike. One hike is not enough; traders demand more. JGB yields still high. If BOJ doesn't prove hawkish enough, yen pressure continues.

MOU extends ceasefire 60 days for technical talks on nuclear program and terrorism financing. Iran will try to change goalposts and push for more concessions (slower reopening, more asset unfreezing, limits on Israel in Lebanon). But Iran needs the deal and fears Trump's military force. US is in stronger position than 2015 due to credible threat of force and weaker Hezbollah.

BOJ will hike to 1% (98% priced in). Underlying inflation still at 2.8%. Focus is on Deputy Governor Uchida's communications about path forward. Hard to deliver hawkish surprise as markets already pricing in further hikes. JGB balance sheet will continue shrinking regardless of taper pause due to redemptions. Yen weakness driven by risk appetite and carry trade, not just BOJ policy.

RBA to hold at 4.35%. Inflation still too high but easing back. Government efforts (tax cuts, fuel supply) helped April inflation. Economic surprise index deeply negative - things weakening. Property market slowing significantly with risk of downward spiral from rate cuts and tax uncertainty. RBA needs to be conscious of property market when talking tough on inflation.