Former US Special Envoy for Syria on Iran Deal (with Heidi Stradwatt)

Asks about Hezbollah issue and whether Israel and US will find agreement.

Heidi Stradwatt

Joel Rayburn

MOU is an extension of current ceasefire for at least 60 days while they go into technical talks about longer-term issues including nuclear program and financing of terrorism. It includes opening of the Strait and commitment by Iran to refrain from attacking shipping.

If vessels start going through and are struck by drones, missiles, attack boats or mines, it would derail the entire deal. Stakes are high for Iranians to meet commitments. In Lebanon, Iran must compel Hezbollah to refrain from attacking northern Israel.

Asks if Iran has more leverage given Trump seems more keen to get a deal.

Heidi Stradwatt

Joel Rayburn

Before last week, people could have argued that. But Trump went back to military strikes which surprised the Iranian regime. That's probably why Iran finally agreed to sign the MOU. Iranians will try to change goalposts as implementation approaches - they relitigate closed points and try to stretch boundaries.

Extra concessions they push for may include slowing reopening, more unfreezing of assets, more limitations on Israelis in Lebanon. But I'd be surprised if they wholly derail the deal because it's so much in their interest and they fear Trump can turn back to military force.

Asks how foreign policy hawks would react if Iran gets concessions.

Heidi Stradwatt

Joel Rayburn

Probably not too well, but that's why I don't see administration going that route. About $24 billion in Iranian assets frozen. Administration has been consistent they won't unfreeze until Iranians have done their end of implementation.

Asks about sequencing of deal over next 60 days.

Heidi Stradwatt

Joel Rayburn

Risk that Iranians will try to draw US into talking about talking and change parameters. They're famous for saying 'issue X is all we're here to talk about' even if they committed to more. This is how they drew Obama administration into two years of talks before JCPOA.

Given leverage mismatch, military mismatch, economic pressure mismatch, there's no reason for US to be drawn into interminable negotiation. President should stick with 60-day window and make clear he won't get to end without progress. Iranians will try to extend indefinitely to get to US midterms.

Asks if US ends up in better place compared to 2015 deal.

Heidi Stradwatt

Joel Rayburn

On the way to there. Materially, Iranian regime is militarily weaker than it was. Obama administration negotiations were never backed by credible threat of force or tight sanctions. Trump has shown willingness to do both. Hezbollah in 2015 posed existential threat to Israel; this time they are an operational threat, not strategic/existential.

Iranians are playing with fewer cards. The new card they have is the Strait of Hormuz, but we'll see how much they can get out of it.

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