Bond market outlook for year of two halves (with Morgan)

explicit

NDX

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

Wellington Management 9.0
Asset Manager $1000.00B
Bridge Kirana 8.5

yields

front end yields are moving higher Strong growth and inflation expected in first half of next year, Fed may indicate no cuts

3 calls

-3

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/8/2025 2:37:40 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-1.67%	-1.67%
9/17/2025 12:40:48 AM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+0.39%	-0.19%

What's the bond market telling us and where are we headed?

Morgan
Bridge Kirana

Today's price action interesting - long yields unchanged but front end yields moving higher. Recognition that growth in first half next year will be quite strong.

Fiscal stimulus from one big beautiful bill coming in, less tariff headwinds than this year. Bond market dealing with fact we may not get as many cuts - Fed could indicate no cuts for next year.
Bridge Kirana

Next year will be year of two halves - strong growth and stronger inflation first half, weaker growth and disinflation second half.

Second half dealing with election. If change in House, fiscal contraction in 2027-2028. Market front-running expectations will be tricky to time.