Market responses to geopolitical events tend to be relatively short-lived based on historical patterns

We've had so many spats of geopolitical risk over the course of 2025 and even over the last couple years. History shows us that these market responses to geopolitical events tend to be relatively short-lived - usually a couple of trading days, sometimes a week or two

Current valuations don't worry me as much because we have better visibility into earnings, free cash flow generation, and business models compared to historical comparisons

When people look at historical multiples, they're not comparing apples to apples. They're comparing a very different set of companies with different balance sheets, market cap, and sectoral composition. If multiples are higher because we have better visibility into earnings and management teams are communicating with us, that doesn't worry me as much

Pullbacks periodically throughout the year are very healthy and normal for market functioning

Pullbacks are the rule, not the exception. The couple times we've seen no pullbacks in a given year tend to come after a year where there was a huge drawdown. After the 2022 market performance, 2023 had no drawdowns

The magnitude of pullbacks may be smaller due to large cash balances on sidelines and fear of missing out

There is a lot of cash and capital on the sidelines. In the past we could have a consolidation period of 5-7%, but there are so many people with fear of missing out sitting on large cash balances looking to get in on a little bit of a lower price

We should be focused on high-quality sustainable earnings growth rather than rotating for rotation's sake

We don't just buy lower quality stuff that has pulled back for no reason. We don't rotate in the market just for rotation's sake. There has to be a fundamental driver. We recognize we're in the latter half of the cycle from both business and market cycle perspective

Market expectations for Fed cuts at every meeting may be disappointed due to inflation and labor market conditions

The data is coming in a little less favorable for sustained cuts at every single meeting. Fed speakers indicated the October cut was a much tougher call than the statement suggested. People betting on incredibly accommodative policy may find themselves disappointed

The Fed faces a very difficult decision in December with inflation above target for 54 months and a frozen labor market

We've been way above the Fed's inflation target for four years - over 54 months. The labor market is frozen but not massively deteriorating due to economic uncertainty from tariffs, AI impact on workforce, and business cycle duration

Nvidia earnings are very important but not make-or-break, focusing more on future guidance and analyst expectations

Most companies offer up guidance they know they can beat. The penalty for missing guidance is so great these days. I'll be watching what happens with future guidance and how that causes the analyst community to readjust expectations

AI theme is durable and I would look for pullbacks as opportunities to re-up investments

Everything we've seen in earnings season supports that companies are spending more, not less, and finding real use cases across different industries. Investing in AI and the spend around it is existential

We're investing in Asian AI companies as part of a geographically diverse strategy, not betting on the broader Chinese economy

We have an overweight to emerging markets Asia equity and added to China over the summer. This has not been a bet on the Chinese economy but on companies in these indices that are high growers geared to the AI theme. Chinese AI valuations are meaningfully less than US counterparts

Medium-term I expect a much weaker dollar over the next 3-5 years due to US fiscal sustainability concerns

Medium-term, I'm focused on fiscal sustainability in the US. We're not seeing much out of this administration to suggest we'll be in a better position 2-3 years later. While we may have dollar stability near-term, my strong view is we're likely to have a much weaker dollar over 3-5 years