Gold and Silver Prices Are Falling: Why The Bull Market Isn’t Over Yet

Jeffrey Christian argues gold's bull market isn't over despite a near-term correction to $3,500-4,000 over the next 4 months. He dismisses depression/hyperinflation fears as low-probability, urging focus on realistic economic trends. He expects a consolidation period in precious metals, then higher prices into 2027, driven by policy responses and demand.

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Metals cautious down , short term, interviewee explicit

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CPM Group 3.0
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Jeffrey Christian 7.0

Gold and Silver Prices Are Falling: Why The Bull Market Isn’t Over Yet

Gold; Silver

metals

You could see a significant decline in gold, silver, platinum prices over the next four months. Gold could fall to $4,000, $3,800, even $3,500 briefly. Silver: $60 is not unreasonable, $50 is not even out of the question. We see some downside potential over the next four months.

24 calls

+17

more right than wrong, with meaningful gains

3/26/2026 10:36:06 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	+8.71%	+4.36%
3/17/2026 8:10:23 PM	long term up	61 days later	-3.12%	-3.12%
3/10/2026 8:21:46 PM	long term up	61 days later	-5.42%	-5.42%
2/2/2026 9:12:01 AM	short term sharp down	6 days later	+1.02%	-1.52%
1/27/2026 11:28:44 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-21.66%	-21.66%
1/23/2026 11:34:16 PM	long term up	60 days later	-22.49%	-22.49%
1/2/2026 11:05:46 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	+24.33%	+12.16%
12/29/2025 6:58:39 PM	long term up	62 days later	+19.88%	+19.88%
12/19/2025 11:20:49 PM	short term up	7 days later	+0.39%	+0.39%
12/9/2025 9:56:43 PM	long term up	61 days later	+25.27%	+25.27%
12/2/2025 10:26:11 PM	long term up	61 days later	+19.34%	+19.34%
10/21/2025 9:30:46 PM	long term up	61 days later	+18.75%	+18.75%
10/14/2025 12:02:53 AM	short term sharp up	5 days later	-0.74%	-1.11%
9/19/2025 9:15:26 PM	long term sharp up	60 days later	+10.10%	+15.15%
9/12/2025 9:25:11 PM	short term up	7 days later	+2.06%	+2.06%
9/9/2025 9:15:19 PM	short term up	5 days later	+1.78%	+1.78%
9/5/2025 7:05:22 PM	long term up	60 days later	+12.34%	+12.34%
8/26/2025 8:08:07 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+8.84%	+8.84%
8/22/2025 8:43:34 PM	short term up	8 days later	+5.10%	+5.10%
8/13/2025 5:13:42 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+6.88%	+6.88%
8/8/2025 8:04:49 PM	short term sharp up	7 days later	-0.25%	-0.38%
8/5/2025 7:24:42 PM	medium term sharp up	20 days later	+0.66%	+0.99%

Show all 22 metals results

Jeffrey Christian

I want to talk about rational economic expectations. It's important to know the possibilities but also focus on the probabilities. There's so much hype on the part of promoters worrying about depression or hyperinflation.

We all know guys, since 1981, we've been talking about the Treasury market collapsing, yet US Treasury holdings overseas are at record levels. People talk about the dollar collapsing, yet the dollar is 40% higher than in 2011.
Jeffrey Christian

The probability of a depression these days is extremely low, five standard deviations from the norm. The probability of hyperinflation is similarly extremely unlikely.

I know people who have missed out on the three largest stock market bull markets and bond market rallies in history because they've been waiting for depression or hyperinflation.
Jeffrey Christian

Government and monetary authorities have developed policies since the Great Depression to try to avoid these extremes. Some policies contribute to difficult periods like the Great Recession, but it's not a matter of going back to depression or hyperinflation.

You need to focus your investment activity on the probabilities of less dramatic, though still potentially devastating, economic trends. That's why you buy gold and silver.
Jeffrey Christian

Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all fell sharply yesterday. Gold dropped to around $4,550, trading around $4,591 now. It has traded as low as $4,522 this morning.
Jeffrey Christian

You could see a significant decline in gold, silver, platinum prices over the next four months (May, June, July, August). Gold could fall to $4,000, $3,800, even $3,500 briefly and still be at higher prices than we've ever seen.

Gold only broke around $3,500 in September of last year. You're still in a bull market even if you have a plateau period.
Jeffrey Christian

There's been a sharp increase in bad information. Central banks were net sellers of about 3.3 million ounces in the first quarter, mostly Turkey and Russia.
Jeffrey Christian

Silver prices also fell. Our expectation is that prices will have some downside scope. $60 is not unreasonable, $50 is not even out of the question, but we think prices are still in an upward trend.

We're seeing strong demand in China from investors. Lower demand from fabricators makes sense because higher prices lead them to reduce silver use.
Jeffrey Christian

Our expectation is that we're going to see a broad consolidation period across precious metals over the next four months, with higher prices in the final four months of 2026 and probably into 2027.

A lot of that's going to depend on what happens in the economy.
Jeffrey Christian

Platinum prices are at $1,990. Our expectation is that we will see increased supplies from mine production and scrap this year, which could put a cap on price increases but probably not drive prices back to the $800-$1,100 range.

We see some downside potential over the next four months.
Jeffrey Christian

Palladium prices are at $1,530. Our expectation is that prices will stay relatively high compared to where they were from 2001 through 2017.
Jeffrey Christian

After the Great Depression, a lot of protections were built. Social Security's balance sheet could easily be fixed, but the political will doesn't exist.

Politicians know their careers, if not their lives, are at risk if they let depressions and hyperinflation emerge. They take steps to limit the damage.
Jeffrey Christian

Since 1947, we've had much less frequent and much less severe recessions as monetary policy came along. From 1980 onward, we've seen fewer recessions and less severe recessions.

Even the spike down in 2007-2009 was very limited compared to what we saw in the 1930s and late 19th century.
Jeffrey Christian

The rate of job creation has been slowing down and is at really problematic levels. That's a worrisome factor everyone should be paying attention to.

Unemployment has been rising over the last 14 months, but it's still at historically low levels.
Jeffrey Christian

Hyperinflation is an economic term referring to inflation rates of 50% per month, which the United States has never seen. We haven't seen hyperinflation since at least 1900.

We saw high inflation of 7.5-10% in the early post-war period, and up to 14% in the 1970s. It was not hyperinflation.
Jeffrey Christian

We're not worried about hyperinflation. We're worried about high inflation. Hyperinflation is something in the history books, something in small countries, and something that hucksters talk about when trying to scare people.

Take a deep breath and go for a walk.

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