A US-Iran MOU reopening the Strait of Hormuz removes the war premium, triggering a broad risk-on move: equities up, crude down 5.4%. Kevin Hincks sees crude potentially falling further given ample global supply. He flags Kevin Warsh's first Fed press conference as potentially transformational for market expectations, though no rate move is expected.
implicit
explicit
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Metals
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Schwab
8.0
Asset Manager $890.00B
Kevin Hincks 4.0
Asset Manager $890.00B
Kevin Hincks 4.0
6/15/2026 4:30:16 PM
dxy
Guest lists dollar as one of the indicators showing risk-on, implying no strong directional move expected in the dollar
ndx
Nasdaq up over 2%... risk on environment
| 6/12/2026 2:00:09 AM | short term sharp up | 7 days later | -0.64% | -0.97% |
| 6/11/2026 2:00:05 AM | short term down | 5 days later | +0.12% | -0.12% |
| 6/8/2026 4:30:36 PM | short term up | 6 days later | +5.02% | +5.02% |
| 6/5/2026 4:30:04 PM | short term down | 7 days later | +3.84% | -3.84% |
| 6/5/2026 2:00:05 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +3.84% | -3.84% |
| 6/4/2026 4:40:40 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -1.55% | +0.78% |
| 6/3/2026 7:30:39 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | -4.35% | +2.18% |
| 5/29/2026 6:00:30 PM | short term up | 7 days later | -3.60% | -3.60% |
| 5/27/2026 3:30:10 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.44% | +1.44% |
| 5/20/2026 9:00:35 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +2.19% | +2.19% |
| 5/19/2026 1:00:18 AM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.63% | -0.31% |
| 5/14/2026 3:30:29 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +0.59% | +0.59% |
| 5/11/2026 4:33:03 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -0.24% | -0.24% |
| 5/9/2026 5:00:57 PM | medium term up | 21 days later | +4.07% | +4.07% |
| 5/6/2026 6:30:38 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.75% | +1.75% |
| 5/1/2026 6:30:15 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +6.04% | +6.04% |
| 5/1/2026 3:30:59 PM | short term up | 7 days later | +6.04% | +6.04% |
| 4/30/2026 3:49:07 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +3.21% | +3.21% |
| 4/29/2026 6:30:43 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +2.05% | -1.03% |
| 4/24/2026 2:00:48 AM | short term down | 7 days later | +1.27% | -1.27% |
| 4/14/2026 2:01:03 AM | short term up | 5 days later | +1.47% | +1.47% |
| 3/10/2026 1:00:27 AM | short term up | 5 days later | -1.24% | -1.24% |
| 3/9/2026 3:30:01 PM | short term up | 6 days later | -1.21% | -1.21% |
| 3/3/2026 7:15:05 PM | short term down | 5 days later | -0.50% | +0.50% |
| 2/18/2026 5:01:08 PM | short term cautious down | 5 days later | +0.72% | -0.36% |
| 11/20/2025 7:30:15 PM | short term up | 5 days later | +4.11% | +4.11% |
| 10/23/2025 3:00:52 AM | short term cautious up | 5 days later | +3.00% | +1.50% |
| 10/1/2025 5:00:02 PM | short term up | 5 days later | -0.21% | -0.21% |
rut
Guest says stock futures up ~1.3% and broad risk-on trade, which typically benefits small caps; e-minis mentioned as up nearly 1.3%
wti
Guest says world is flush with crude oil supplies and prices could go lower over time, but notes Israel-Lebanon issue remains unresolved, suggesting caution on further downside
yields
Risk-on environment typically pushes yields higher, but with Fed meeting upcoming and no rate move expected, the move may be cautious
