Gold short-term technical breakdown below 200-day MA, hawkish Fed weighing. But central bank buying (45% intend to increase holdings), fiscal deficits, and Asian demand establish higher floor. Expect recovery over next few months. Copper focused on tariff speculation, inventories building — be careful of short-term trade. Rare earths: short-term processing bottleneck, not long-term availability issue.
Yields
NDX
RUT
Oil
explicit
implicit
Ninety One
7.0
Asset Manager $150.00B
George Cheveley 8.0
Asset Manager $150.00B
George Cheveley 8.0
7/1/2026 12:32:56 PM
dxy
Hawkish Fed stance and potential rate hikes support dollar strength in near term.
metals
Over next few months expect gold to start to recover. Central bank buying, fiscal deficits, Asian demand maintain buying pressure long-term.
AI rally should take a breather — semi names optically cheap on earnings but earnings up 10x and supply coming in 2-3 years. Watch Microsoft for capex signals. AI is real but 20-30% pullbacks possible, not 60-70% like 2000/2007. Opportunity in underperforming parts of market.
Yields
explicit
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Recara Investment Management
2.5
Asset Manager
Rahul Chadha 7.5
Asset Manager
Rahul Chadha 7.5
7/1/2026 12:32:56 PM
ndx
AI is for real. Pullbacks of 20-30% possible but not 60-70% like 2000 or 2007.
wti
Started year with surplus market. Oil well-behaved. If Middle East sorted quickly, back to excess supply.
Japanese authorities may intervene if yen weakens further, especially after US payrolls data on Thursday. Intervention could occur on Friday (US holiday) for maximum impact. Long-term structural yen weakness requires more than intervention to reverse.
Yields
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
implicit
Bloomberg
7.0
Financial Media
Paul Dobson 4.0
Financial Media
Paul Dobson 4.0
7/1/2026 12:32:56 PM
dxy
Paul Dobson notes Fed moving closer to hiking is lifting dollar today on those bets.