Short-term: technical breakdown below 200-day MA, hawkish Warsh speech, inflation concerns. Technicals weighing. But towards year-end: huge central bank interest — latest survey 45% intend to increase holdings over next 12 months. ETF holdings only came back from 101M to 96-97M ounces — no real selling. Gold had strong start to year, come back a bit, some work to do. Over next few months expect recovery. Very tough for Fed to hike even if they want — cost of them is high.

Floor moves up each time. Establishing new floor now, might take a while. Generally gold sets back, finds new floor, pushes on. Not done in this cycle. Macro backdrop: fiscal deficits globally, desire to buy gold in Asia (China, others). That maintains buying pressure long-term.

Always worry when you see selloff that it's the peak, but fundamentals support continued buying.

Copper all focused on potential US tariffs. Waiting for announcement (expected yesterday). Speculation of 10-15% tariff from January. Dragged a lot of copper to US, stocks risen. Overall exchange inventories up ~800,000 tons over 12 months, 400,000 this year. People trading short-term tariff story. Copper supply recovering despite disruptions.

Be careful — inventory build contradicts narrative of tightness.

Short-term gives a lot of power. Concern around critical mineral sourcing — G7 meeting in Paris discussed this. But this is a processing problem, not availability. If West builds facilities, can be solved relatively quickly but not for 1-2 years. Short-term problem while West works out how to process these materials.