CPI data came out harder than expected, and FOMC minutes showed several members considered the possibility of raising rates. Asks if rate hikes are coming this year.

Cannot see any pathway to a rate hike; it's political posturing. The economy is seeing a very rapid slowdown in growth, with Q4 GDP at 0.5% and PCE dropping from 1.9% to 0.6% in early 2026 before the oil price hit. Sell-side firms are using the 'R-word' (recession).

Asks why the Fed would even consider hiking.

It's political posturing to present a hawkish stance until criminal charges against Jerome Powell are dropped. Powell's confirmation process for Kevin Warsh is stalled because of these charges.

Notes the White House is confident Warsh will lead in May, and asks why they would confirm a hawkish candidate in an inflationary environment.

The White House doesn't have a choice; Warsh is already nominated. The inflation shock (supply shock) will slam growth. Atlanta Fed GDPNow is at 1.3% for Q1, and layoffs keep coming (Disney is latest).

Notes the CME FedWatch tool shows no chance of a cut until December. Asks what will happen to the economy if the Fed doesn't act.

This will go down as one of the biggest policy errors in Fed history. The Fed is ignoring what's in front of them and keeping policy overly tight into recession. NBER's personal income after transfers has a recessionary reading. Payrolls have had many negative months; March's strong print was due to a warm weather anomaly and birth-death adjustment.

Asks what the correct policy should be.

The correct policy is to acknowledge that households, small businesses, and gig workers are being slammed by higher gas prices and wage disinflation. Rate cuts might not do much, but it's more honest to side with working people.

Asks about the 10-year yield outlook if the Fed does nothing.

The 10-year yield has fallen from 4.35% to 4.31% despite a dramatic week. The fact that yields are not going up shows the market is disregarding the inflationary threat and paying heed to the growth shock.

Asks what data would trigger a rate hike.

Would need explosive payroll prints, which is not happening given all the layoffs. Also, Powell's super core inflation (services ex-energy, ex-housing) is falling like a rock, indicating consumers have less to spend.

Asks if the Iran conflict has shifted the Fed's priorities to inflation over labor market.

Yes, until criminal charges against Powell are dropped, every Fed official will hide behind a hawkish stance and threaten to raise rates.

Asks for tactical asset allocation strategies in a hawkish Fed environment.

The yield curve should be about 100 bps steeper (short rates should be lower). If the Fed is forced to play catch-up, the short end of the curve is the place to be.

Asks about inflation hedging, specifically precious metals.

Precious metals have found their floor. Whether hedging for a credit event, financial crisis, Fed error, or inflation, precious metals are a good place to hide.

Asks about housing and the 30-year fixed rate.

The slowdown in growth will put more pressure on housing. University of Michigan confidence is at its lowest in history, and 'good time to buy a house' has collapsed.

Asks what consumers are most concerned about now.

Consumers are worried their paychecks can't cover living expenses. Unemployment expectations printed at 68%, which are deep recessionary readings.

Asks if stimulus checks can be expected before November.

Congress would have to act, but it's the least active Congress in history with a razor-thin margin. Something needs to be done or it will be a bloodbath in the midterms for incumbents.

Asks about the next major data point.

The April payroll report. There have been 14 consecutive months of negative revisions, and the labor market is clearly deteriorating.

Asks if Chevron's dividend is still safe as an equity refuge.

Yes, Chevron's dividend is safe.

Asks about FOMC dissenter Myron and if Christopher Waller might dissent.

It would shock her if Christopher Waller did not dissent at the April meeting, given the weakening labor market and oil supply shock.

Asks about inflation expectations as a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Inflation expectations outside of energy are falling because purchasing power is being decimated. You can only pay for what you can spend.

Asks what inflation indicator she would follow if on the FOMC.

She would follow Powell's super core inflation (services disinflation) because it's falling, which is indicative of the weakening backdrop.

Asks about the equilibrium fed funds rate this year.

She wants the Fed to stop lowering rates after they start to play catch-up in a panic mode at 2%. At some point they'll be caught offsides and push through unusually large rate cuts.

Asks for evaluation of Powell's statement that oil price shocks are transitory and policy has lag effects.

She evaluates that statement as 'maybe naive.' The lag effects of higher-for-longer are already percolating in the highest bankruptcy filings since the Great Financial Crisis.

Asks what would need to happen to turn labor market weakness around.

Leadership that embraces capitalism in its fullest form: an honest day's work gets an honest day's pay, and fiscal/monetary policy are not solely made for the top 1%.

Asks if her outlook would change if the Iran conflict ended today.

No, because all the data discussed (personal consumption slowing, job losses) predates the Iran conflict. Stopping it won't make recent history disappear.

Asks for any silver lining or glimmer of hope.

Demographics are still on our side if you're in the healthcare industry. As for learning from this, leadership needs to be more proactive if doing nothing and less impulsive if doing too much.