Stocks Hold Near Record on AI Trade as Oil Falls

Equities remain favored but preferences shift from Korea to China tech. Gold is a good entry point due to central bank buying. Dollar upgraded vs G10, especially yen. IPO wave may slow but not derail rally. Hidden leverage in levered single stock ETFs is a concern.

Yields

NDX cautious up , medium term, interviewee implicit

implicit

RUT cautious up

Oil

Metals up , medium term, interviewee explicit

explicit

USD up , short term, interviewee explicit

explicit

Schroders 7.8
Asset Manager $800.00B
Mina Krishnan 8.0

Stocks Hold Near Record on AI Trade as Oil Falls

dxy

We have upgraded our view... rate differential and growth differential story is in favor of the dollar. Our key pick is to go long dollar versus Japanese yen. I think we do go through 160.

3/24/2026 8:51:19 PM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-1.49%	-0.74%
1/30/2026 2:30:29 PM	short term up	7 days later	-0.81%	-0.81%
1/12/2026 8:18:18 PM	short term down	6 days later	+0.27%	-0.27%
1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM	medium term down	20 days later	-1.53%	+1.53%

metals

We think this is a good entry for gold. The fundamental story is still intact.

1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM	medium term up	20 days later	-3.02%	-3.02%

ndx

Equities are still liked but preferences are shifting away from North Asia tech (Korea) into China tech. Growth segment still favored but with diversification into value. IPO wave may slow rally.

1/12/2026 2:06:59 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	-0.01%	+0.01%

rut

Positive earnings revisions are broad across sectors, not just tech, which supports small caps. But IPO wave and late-cycle concerns may slow momentum.

Speaker1

Equity strength is driven by earnings, which are exceeding real GDP growth and are broad-based across sectors, not just tech.

Positive earnings revisions are concentrated in the 0-15% range, which is healthy.
Asks about multi-asset portfolio preferences.

Speaker2
Speaker1

We continue to like equities but are rotating from Korea (tactically stretched, 70% above 200-day MA) into China tech.

Korea's valuation is still attractive long-term but tactically overbought; China tech has low positioning (13th percentile) and low correlation to US tech, offering diversification.
Asks about China's investability given past government trust issues.

Speaker2
Speaker1

China tech is an opportunity due to very low positioning and diversification benefits vs US tech.

Korean exports are highly correlated with US earnings, while US-China correlation is much lower, making China additive to portfolios.
Asks about growth vs value and the enduring ability of growth investing.

References Harvey essay and Fama-French framework.

Speaker3
Speaker1

We still like growth but are diversifying into pockets of value, moving away from value-heavy Europe.

Credit markets are now dominated by AI hyperscalers. Earlier this year we liked Europe and Japan, but the war changed dynamics. Now prefer UK, Canada, Japan over Europe.
Asks about gold as an entry point after decline from $5000 to $4500.

Speaker2
Speaker1

Gold is a good entry point; fundamental story intact despite recent liquidity selling.

Central bank buying and strategic reserve diversification support gold. Recent stability despite strong dollar and yields is a positive sign.
Asks about dollar outlook after war in Iran drove safe-haven flows.

Speaker2
Speaker1

Upgraded dollar view: bearish vs select EM but bullish vs G10, especially yen targeting 160+.

Rate and growth differentials favor dollar vs G10. BOJ targets depreciation rate, not absolute level, so managed depreciation can break 160.
Asks about hidden leverage in the system, referencing derivatives and Mark Rubenstein.

Speaker3
Speaker1

Hidden leverage is in levered single stock ETFs and the upcoming IPO wave (~$300B in 6 months), which may slow but not derail the rally.

This is a reason to take profit on Korea. The IPO wave could be a late-cycle sign but not enough to derail the rally.

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