Central banks in impossible situation with supply-side inflation. ECB will hike rates (2 hikes forecast) to manage inflation expectations, learning from past 'transitory' mistake. Fed different story - question is can they cut? With inflation rising, Fed no longer in position to cut, creating conundrum and pressure on independence.

Dollar capped as safe haven because other havens (gold, yen, Swiss franc) not working well, but US not immune to war effects (inflationary impact on consumer). Trust in dollar damaged by erratic policy.

Genie out of bottle on inflation; Trump can't stop $4 gasoline. May end war without reopening Strait (stating obvious).

Very concerned about European economies, especially Germany. High dependence on oil/gas hits industry. Revised German growth forecast down from 1.2% to 0.8%. Distortions in chemicals, helium, fertilizers. Damage done even if war ends tomorrow.