implicit

inferred
RUT
Oil

explicit

explicit
The Trump Organization, Inc 3.0
Real Estate
Kevin Warsh 7.0
1/31/2026 12:30:05 AM
dxy
The dollar strengthening Immediate market reaction to Warsh nomination. Higher for longer US rates (per Kathy Jones) would support dollar strength relative to other currencies.
6 calls
-+0
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
1/28/2026 12:46:08 PM short term down 5 days later +1.20% -1.20%
10/15/2025 10:20:54 AM short term down 5 days later +0.55% -0.55%
10/10/2025 10:02:06 AM medium term sharp up 22 days later +0.83% +1.25%
7/17/2025 8:55:47 AM short term down 5 days later -1.29% +1.29%
Show all 4 dxy results
metals
gold prices sliding significantly more than $500 off of the highs Market reaction to Warsh nomination (perceived as less dovish than expected) caused gold selloff. Higher rates environment (per Kathy Jones) is negative for non-yielding assets like gold.
6 calls
-4
no reliable edge (random outcomes)
10/14/2025 10:09:14 AM medium term sharp up 20 days later -5.78% -8.67%
10/1/2025 1:06:42 AM short term sharp up 5 days later +3.77% +5.65%
9/16/2025 2:12:06 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.77% +2.66%
9/12/2025 12:16:57 PM short term sharp up 7 days later +1.47% +2.20%
9/4/2025 2:46:38 PM short term sharp up 5 days later +1.07% +1.60%
Show all 5 metals results
ndx
Higher for longer rates (per Kathy Jones) would pressure tech valuations. Hosts note high bar for earnings with some beats getting punished, and Microsoft was punished for slow Azure growth.
yields
Kathy Jones argues current economic data (hotter PPI, elevated inflation, strong growth) doesn't support rate cuts, implying yields should stay higher or rise as market adjusts expectations.

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