Intervention can come anytime, but the question is how effective it is. It doesn't make a difference. Japan created a policy mix where the currency is not controllable. The market is losing credibility with the BOJ. The BOJ is behind the curve. The market wants to push dollar-yen through 160, which is our forecast.

You have to pick one: fiscal stimulus, inflation, currency direction, or independent monetary policy. You can't have all of them.

Policymakers want to be seen doing something. The BOJ was hawkish and probably wants to hike in June, but they've missed opportunities for years. They're fighting against fundamentals, not just smoothing volatility.

Inflation is becoming embedded in the system. They're trying to figure out what levers to pull.

Risks are very low. Last time the BOJ intervened in 2024, fair value was at 145, so 160 was easy because the market was dislodged from fundamentals. Now we're in a high interest rate, high inflation regime. The yen won't outperform unless the BOJ gets ahead of the curve.

Gold is underperforming even in an uncertain environment. There's no way Asian currencies will outperform when yields are rising.

The market is obsessed with carryover narratives from last year about uncertainty and Fed easing. Those are dated. The dollar is close to fair value levels. The dollar is strong and will be stronger for longer than most accept. Our core view is EUR/USD going back to 1.11.

When you score currencies on cross-sections of equity momentum, carry, and growth, the dollar comes as a top-tier currency.

This is a terms of trade shock. The money from chip exports is being recycled back into the US tech cycle, so the currency doesn't strengthen. LNG prices are running through the roof, hurting Korea, Japan, Turkey, India. Policymakers prefer a weaker currency to maintain manufacturing competitiveness with China.

The KOSPI-Korean won correlation is close to zero. Just because a country runs a current account surplus doesn't mean the currency will strengthen. Policy preference is aligned with competitiveness, not currency strength.