Oil prices are coming down quickly for three reasons: Gulf exports are back to 60% of pre-war levels, markets are challenging the need for a sticky security premium, and there's growing probability of structural demand weakness from EVs. China's crude imports remain down 40%. The bulls underappreciated flexibility in the system.
inferred
NDX
RUT
explicit
Metals
USD
Goldman Sachs
9.0
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Daan Struyven 8.5
Investment Bank $2500.00B
Daan Struyven 8.5
6/24/2026 5:52:13 PM
wti
Oil prices are coming down quickly. We estimate total Gulf exports are back at 60% of pre-war levels. Markets are challenging the sticky security premium.
yields
Struyven does not discuss yields. His focus on oil disinflation suggests potential downward pressure on inflation expectations, which could be neutral-to-slightly positive for bonds, but no explicit call.
The big story is the surprising strength of the US labor market, driving real yields higher. BlackRock has taken down overall portfolio risk as the risk of an overheated economy rises. They are short US Treasuries and have bought foreign bonds (UK gilts, Australian bonds). The Fed's hawkish tone is orthodox—back to basics without forward guidance.
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implicit
RUT
Oil
Metals
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BlackRock
9.5
Asset Manager $10500.00B
Tom Becker 8.5
Asset Manager $10500.00B
Tom Becker 8.5
6/24/2026 5:52:13 PM
ndx
Becker has taken down overall portfolio risk due to overheating risk. Higher real yields weigh on equities. He notes that if 30-year yields rise to 5.35-5.40, it's hard to support current valuations, implying downside risk for tech/growth stocks.
yields
Our biggest shorts in bond portfolios are US Treasuries. We think Treasuries here—the path still looks too low relative to the rest of the world.
Bessent's endorsement of Warsh is not newsworthy—it would be more newsworthy if he undermined Trump's Fed chair. PIMCO still thinks the Fed will be on hold this year and the first move will be a cut, not a hike. Warsh's changes are more about style than substance so far; substantive changes require FOMC votes. The primary results reflect anti-incumbent sentiment more than a socialist takeover.
Yields
NDX
RUT
Oil
Metals
USD
PIMCO
8.5
Asset Manager $2100.00B
Libby Cantrill 8.5
Asset Manager $2100.00B
Libby Cantrill 8.5
6/24/2026 5:52:13 PM
Micron earnings are a gut check for the AI trade. Demand-supply for chips is 12-15:1, no equilibrium for 1.5-2 years. The chip trade remains one to own. Hyperscalers are in the penalty box but will see pushback on pricing over time. Microsoft is the most oversold large-cap name; Meta faces a prove-it moment on capex spending.
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explicit
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Oil
Metals
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Wedbush
5.5
Management Consulting $1.90B
Dan Ives 8.0
Management Consulting $1.90B
Dan Ives 8.0
6/24/2026 5:52:13 PM
ndx
You'll have these gut check moments and white-knuckle periods. We view these as opportunities to own AI winners.
yields
Ives does not discuss yields directly. His focus on the AI trade continuing suggests he does not see rate hikes as derailing the tech narrative, implying a neutral view on yields.
The AI buildout is in early innings; earnings growth is strong but the rate of change will be challenging. The market is testing Fed Chair Warsh, who is taking a cautious/hawkish approach. Bonds offer a margin of safety at current real yields. The semiconductor cycle faces supply bottlenecks, but the secular trend remains intact.
implicit
explicit
implicit
Metals
USD
2.5
Other
Aaron Kennon 7.0
Other
Aaron Kennon 7.0
6/24/2026 5:52:13 PM
ndx
The rate of change is going to be challenging for the market to parse through. We have overbought conditions, a lot of momentum. Huge moves are forcing some investors to take pause.
rut
Kennon discusses broadening as healthy but doesn't give a strong directional call on small caps. The context suggests a neutral-to-cautious view.
wti
Kennon references the end of hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz as potentially disinflationary, implying lower oil prices ahead.
yields
Kennon says the market is testing Warsh, 2-year at 4.20 vs. Fed funds at 3.75, implying upward pressure on short-end yields. He sees QT acceleration before rate hikes, suggesting yields may rise further near-term.
The DSA wins in NYC are striking but uniquely rooted in local organizing and Mayor Mamdani's personality. These results are unlikely to translate to typical suburban districts nationally. The wins expose ideological tensions within the Democratic Party and will make Hakeem Jeffries' leadership more challenging.
Yields
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Oil
Metals
USD
Wolf Research
4.0
Industry Research Firm
Tobin Marcus 7.0
Industry Research Firm
Tobin Marcus 7.0
6/24/2026 5:52:13 PM