AI rally pushes Bear Market Checklist to 9.5/10, signaling extreme froth. Avoid the European value trap: soaring energy profits mask cyclical decay from high oil prices. Maintain US > RoW preference. Bond moves are noise until PMIs roll over—that's the trigger for a real selloff. A ceasefire is the only catalyst for a squeeze in beaten-down European assets, making an underweight position a tactical risk.