Mega IPOs, Market Liquidity & Private Capital (with Romaine Bostick, Katie Greifeld)

Public markets can absorb the wave of mega-IPOs and lock-up expiries (up to $700B), netting against buybacks ($1.5T) and M&A. The narrative is shifting from 'private forever' as AI companies need massive capital. Private markets will remain a representation of the real economy, while public markets will represent tech and AI disruption. Power is the bottleneck, with a focus on transmission and distribution, not just generation.

Yields

implicit

RUT

Oil

Metals

USD

JPMorgan 9.0
Investment Bank $3170.00B
Sitara Sundar 8.5

Mega IPOs, Market Liquidity & Private Capital (with Romaine Bostick, Katie Greifeld)

ndx

Sundar states public markets will represent tech and AI disruption, and that thematic AI companies will tap public markets. This implies a positive medium-term outlook for the tech-heavy NDX.

How will the freed-up capital from the SpaceX IPO be recycled back into the ecosystem?

Katie Greifeld
Sitara Sundar

Public markets can absorb the supply (up to $700B in IPOs and lock-ups), netting against $1.5T in buybacks and M&A. The capital will flow between public and private markets. The idea of companies staying private longer is validated by these mega-IPOs.
Is the shift from 'private forever' to mega-IPOs a narrative shift driven by AI's need for massive capital?

Katie Greifeld
Sitara Sundar

Yes, thematic companies (AI value chain) will tap public markets for liquidity. But 85-95% of companies with >$100M revenue are still private. Private markets will represent the real economy, while public markets will represent tech and AI disruption.
Given the massive demand for AI capex ($1.4T-$2T/year), will terms be more favorable for investors in private or public markets?

Romaine Bostick
Sitara Sundar

Corporate finance 101: companies will seek the most favorable terms. We'll see a shift in investment-grade debt markets from financials to hyperscalers. 25% of needed capital will likely come through private markets.
Will AI be the dominant theme for all investments, even in 'pedestrian' sectors like factories?

Romaine Bostick
Sitara Sundar

AI is a platform technology, not a sector. It will affect everything. But there will be 'AI-proof' areas like live entertainment, sports, and luxury experiences that people will lean into for insulation.
Power is the bottleneck. What is the investment opportunity there?

Katie Greifeld
Sitara Sundar

A lot of focus has been on generation, but we are more focused on transmission and distribution. The grid was built in the 60s and 70s and needs investment to get generation to the end user. We will also see a shift towards vertical integration from power to chip to application layer.
What is the appetite for new private market vintages, and will liquidity be there?

Romaine Bostick
Sitara Sundar

Appetite remains due to the confluence of themes (AI, fragmentation, inflation). The need for differentiated return streams and alternative income is paramount. With mega-IPOs and a pickup in M&A, distributions are coming, leading investors to re-up.

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