Brian Belski agrees with Tom Lee that 2026 is an earnings-driven market, which is more volatile than momentum-driven. He expects a deceleration in large-cap EPS growth (from 30% to 20%) that will scare investors, causing a 5-10% correction heading into fall. He advises rebalancing portfolios back to original weights as some stocks have doubled and become overweight. He remains a believer in the broadening-out theme driving markets into 2027.
Broadening-out theme implies small/mid caps (Russell 2000) will participate in the rally into 2027.
Asks Brian Belski how his views match up with Tom Lee's.
Scott
Brian Belski
2026 is an earnings-driven market, different from the last 2-3 years of the bull. Earnings-driven markets are more volatile than momentum-driven, rewarding in both directions.
Brian Belski
Expect deceleration in large-cap EPS growth (from 30% to 20%), which will scare people into selling. Expect a 5-10% correction heading into fall, not a bear market.
Brian Belski
Important to rebalance portfolios back to original weights over next 4-6 weeks. Some stocks have doubled and are now bigger weight than Mag 7 names, which is a problem.
Brian Belski
Believes in the broadening-out theme that will drive things into 2027.
Notes that 40% moves in Snowflake and Micron are becoming routine, which is a problem as investors get lazy.
Scott
Brian Belski
Agrees that becoming used to big moves is a problem. That's where the correction could begin to reverse and spew more downside.