Tani Fukui on Trade, Inflation, and AI Productivity (with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney)

Tani Fukui sees international trade linkages as 'a concern' but not broken. The consumer is strong in aggregate, with low debt service ratios. AI is a net positive for productivity over 3-5 years, but the path is not smooth. The new Fed chair's close-to-the-vest communication style may backfire in the social media era.

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Tani Fukui 8.0

Tani Fukui on Trade, Inflation, and AI Productivity (with Tom Keene, Paul Sweeney)

ndx

AI is a net positive for productivity over 3-5 years... massive gains to be had.

3 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

6/2/2026 1:14:44 AM	medium term cautious up	20 days later	-4.00%	-2.00%
10/14/2025 2:16:18 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	+1.60%	-0.80%
9/12/2025 2:38:16 PM	medium term up	21 days later	+2.82%	+2.82%

Show all 3 ndx results

yields

Inflation concerns are not done; shifting trade patterns and AI energy demand will keep pressure on yields. The Fed may need to be more hawkish than expected.

Tani Fukui

International trade linkages are a concern; shifting global trade patterns may prevent reaching 2% inflation for some time.

Supply shocks continue to come from changes to the global economy.
Tani Fukui

The demand side is strong; consumers say they're unhappy but don't spend like it. Debt levels and service ratios are relatively low.

Corporate profits are going from strength to strength, supporting the economy.
Tani Fukui

AI is a net positive for productivity over 3-5 years, but the path is not smooth; we are in a phase similar to 1996-1998 for the internet.

Massive gains are to be had, but they take time to materialize. AI demand for energy is a key concern.
Tani Fukui

The new Fed chair's close-to-the-vest communication may backfire; in the social media era, silence creates a vacuum filled by others.

This isn't 2011; all the Fed governors, presidents, and commentators will fill the void.

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