Kevin Smith (Crescat Capital) warns of a potential consequential market peak due to record valuations, fiscal imbalances, tight credit spreads, exuberant sentiment, and deteriorating breadth. He advocates tail-risk protection (S&P 500 puts, volatility, credit spread hedges) and sees rotation opportunities into small-cap value, specifically exploration-focused metals/mining and biotech.
implicit
implicit
Oil
explicit
USD
precious metals up
2.5
Other
Kevin Smith 6.5
Other
Kevin Smith 6.5
Gold; Commodities
6/27/2026 12:10:31 AM
metals
The one commodity sector in particular that we like the best is the precious and critical metals space. But the exploration side of the industry is really where the deep value and the high growth potential is.
ndx
Smith warns of a potential consequential peak, deteriorating breadth, and hyperscalers turning to negative free cash flow, and recommends tail-risk protection against large-cap tech. He advocates rotating out of large/mega-cap tech into small-cap value.
rut
We do see some rotation opportunities into small caps. There's two particular small cap value oriented sectors of the market that we like.
yields
Smith mentions a hawkish new Fed chair and tight credit spreads, which typically imply upward pressure on yields, though he does not explicitly forecast yields.
