DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach: I don't feel like that was a hawkish cut

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Doubleline 8.5
Asset Manager $130.00B
Jeffrey Gundlach 9.0

DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach: I don't feel like that was a hawkish cut

yields

So I'm thinking that we might see long-term interest rates actually rise on this more, more dovish fed... the curve steepened again... the 10-year treasury rate is up as well. Gundlach's core thesis is that Fed rate cuts lead to higher long-term yields, evidenced by historical correlation (175bps cuts, 30y up 75bps) and immediate market reaction (curve steepening post-cut).

14 calls

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

10/29/2025 10:16:46 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+0.98%	-0.49%
10/11/2025 12:16:44 AM	medium term cautious down	22 days later	+1.36%	-0.68%
9/22/2025 6:00:06 PM	long term sharp up	62 days later	-1.99%	-2.99%
9/18/2025 12:05:31 AM	short term cautious up	5 days later	+0.19%	+0.10%

Show all 4 yields results

Asks if the Fed just delivered a 'hawkish cut' inside a dovish meeting.

Scott
Jeffrey Gundlach

Disagrees it was a hawkish cut. Highlights Powell's use of 'well-positioned' and dovish emphasis on overstated jobs data (60k monthly overstatement) making a 40k report effectively -20k.

Notes Powell de-emphasized inflation risks, returned to discussing well-contained breakevens, and framed inflation as less problematic, citing 'good progress' aside from tariffs.
Jeffrey Gundlach

Agrees the Fed is 'well-positioned' because the Fed funds rate (after 175bps of cuts) now aligns with the unchanged 2-year Treasury yield.

States the Fed seems more focused on employment/unemployment risk than inflation being a problem.
Jeffrey Gundlach

Notes the $40B balance sheet expansion (some call QE) on top of the cut gives hope of QE if needed.
Jeffrey Gundlach

Argues Fed rate cuts (175bps) have not helped housing because long-term interest rates have risen.

Cites the 30-year Treasury up ~75bps and 10-year yield up since cuts began. Maintains thesis that Fed cutting rates is not helpful for long-term rates.
Jeffrey Gundlach

Observes the yield curve steepened after the cut (2s30s to ~123-124bps, high this year 130) and thinks long-term rates might actually rise further.

Concludes the cut was not hawkish in his view.

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