Fixed Income Outlook on Japan, China, and US Data (with speaker1)

Yields cautious down , short term, interviewee explicit

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Kathy Jones 8.5

Fixed Income Outlook on Japan, China, and US Data (with speaker1)

yields

I think the market will tend if the numbers are in line with expectations. It's probably 10 to pull. 10-to-poly yields down this week. Expects downward jobs revisions and favorable CPI to increase Fed easing expectations, supporting lower yields.

37 calls

+2

no reliable edge (random outcomes)

12/11/2025 7:30:17 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-1.03%	+0.51%
10/29/2025 5:30:29 PM	short term cautious down	5 days later	-0.10%	+0.05%
10/24/2025 5:33:04 PM	short term up	7 days later	+2.73%	+2.73%
8/25/2025 6:17:17 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+0.45%	-0.22%
8/25/2025 6:17:17 PM	short term cautious down	7 days later	+0.45%	-0.22%

Show all 5 yields results

Asks which of three stories (UK political crisis, Japanese election, China limiting US debt exposure) is having the most impact on the US debt market.

speaker1
speaker2

The Japanese story is most important because Japanese investors are the largest foreign holders of US Treasuries. Rising Japanese yields create upward pressure on US yields as funds are repatriated.

Contrary to popular opinion, expects the Japanese yen to move higher, leading to less investment in US Treasuries and lifting yields globally.
Notes the surprise move in the yen (stronger, not weaker) and transitions to Jim on Bitcoin volatility.

speaker1
Asks how much the upcoming jobs data and CPI will move the needle.

speaker1
speaker2

The employment numbers will include big downward benchmark revisions, painting a weaker picture of the labor market. Combined with a favorable CPI, this is not a bad week for the long end of the Treasury market and will increase expectations for Fed easing.

Explicitly states: 'I think the market will tend... probably tend to pull yields down this week.'

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