Macro and portfolio construction views (with Speaker1)

The primary risk trigger is the 10Y yield breaching 4.5%, a historical catalyst for equity wobbles. A robust US economy is repricing the Fed path, pushing cuts out and hikes in. A new Fed chair adds near-term vol. The trade: stay long US strength but diversify away from crowded SPY/QQQ. Rotate into assets with a margin of safety that still benefit from US growth, like EM debt and equities. The beta is shifting.

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Astoria Portfolio Advisors 7.8
Asset Manager
John Davi 8.5

Macro and portfolio construction views (with Speaker1)

yields

I would watch the 10 year... once you cross 4.5%, historically stocks have wobbled. But that's on a very short term basis.

Asks about potential risk event to markets given strong earnings but rapid rise since war lows, and whether a precipitous risk-off scenario is possible.

Speaker1
Speaker2

I would watch the 10-year yield; crossing 4.5% historically causes short-term stock wobbles. The strong US economy is why rate cuts have been priced out and rate hikes are on the table. A new Fed chairman signals short-term volatility. For long-term portfolios, we lean into US strength.

We like hyperscalers but incrementally tilt to other sectors and asset classes. If economy is strong, lean where there is margin of safety, like EM debt and emerging markets. Diversify away from just SPY and QQQ.

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