Tom Lee: Wise to buy the dip after Greenland tariff anxiety

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NDX cautious down , medium term, interviewee explicit

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Tom Lee 9.0

Tom Lee: Wise to buy the dip after Greenland tariff anxiety

ndx

we think that there is going to be a major hiccup... could be around policy or could be around the new fed being challenged... that's coming from markets being at a higher level... perhaps one of these is enough of a tipping point to cause a broader pullback in markets... that's another possibility for why we'd have a drawdown that feels like a bear market. Lee explicitly forecasts a 'major hiccup' or 'drawdown that feels like a bear market' around mid-year due to policy risks or Fed challenges. This implies a cautious downward move for the broader market (NDX as proxy) in the medium term, though he expects recovery and strong finish to the year.

11/14/2025 11:23:51 PM	medium term cautious up	21 days later	+3.34%	+1.67%
11/10/2025 10:53:49 PM	short term up	6 days later	-2.87%	-2.87%
10/6/2025 2:52:07 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+3.95%	+3.95%
9/15/2025 11:21:47 PM	medium term up	20 days later	+2.90%	+2.90%
8/22/2025 6:28:53 PM	short term up	8 days later	-0.83%	-0.83%
8/13/2025 3:51:26 PM	short term up	5 days later	-1.88%	-1.88%
8/4/2025 10:55:29 PM	short term sharp up	6 days later	+2.21%	+3.31%
8/4/2025 4:19:52 PM	short term up	6 days later	+2.21%	+2.21%

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Asks Tom Lee to react to the president's news about Greenland deal framework and market rally.

Scott
Tom Lee

Today's news diffuses anxiety from Greenland/Japan fears; wise to buy the dip.

Investors were concerned about a repeat of 2025's 20% decline over eight weeks.
Notes president also said no tariffs on Europe Feb 1st, which upset market. Asks if Lee still looks for a bear market mid-year.

Scott
Tom Lee

Clear that a major hiccup is coming around policy or new Fed being challenged, from higher market levels.

People mistake this for going to cash; advises stay invested and buy dips. Good things in 2026 but much already priced in after three good years.
Asks what dip he would buy specifically.

Scott
Tom Lee

Buy dips in companies with good earnings visibility or structural reason to be long; avoid companies in bullseye of White House policy.

Names sold yesterday are same great company, 10% cheaper. Last year White House picked winners/losers in healthcare/consulting; this year credit card issuers, institutional buyers of single-family homes, some countries.
Notes it's complicated; you don't know who's in bullseye next.

Scott
Tom Lee

100% right. If White House decides companies creating problems (credit card/electricity bills), there could be action.

Potential risk is data centers and electricity consumption.
Suggests slippery slope where administration picks winners/losers, complicating picture.

Scott
Tom Lee

Every administration picks winners/losers; this White House is ambitious, trying to accomplish a lot.

Risk that one issue becomes tipping point for broader pullback, causing drawdown that feels like bear market.
Asks if whatever upset is reversed, leading to strong year.

Scott
Tom Lee

Yes. 2025 20% decline didn't lead to recession; waterfall declines not followed by recession with VIX hitting 60 have symmetric recovery.

If 6-week drawdown, investors shouldn't sell unless great at timing; could recover all loss within six weeks. Expecting really strong finish for year.
Asks where Fed factors in given president's criticism of Powell and commentary on next chair.

Scott
Tom Lee

Important. Fed is single most important entity; its independence is incredibly important because markets respect and fear it.

Process... increasing odds it's a Fed that will be respected because... multiple things taking place at Fed now. White House can proceed to pick new chair and actually that'll be a good thing.

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