Senator Rand Paul on Iran War and Oil Prices (with Andrew Ross Sorkin)

Yields

NDX

RUT

explicit

Metals

USD

U.S. Senate 6.2
Government Agency
Rand Paul 7.0

Senator Rand Paul on Iran War and Oil Prices (with Andrew Ross Sorkin)

wti

I suspect it's going to be quite sticky on the way down... Emotions bid things up quickly and then the calming of emotions brings things down slowly. Paul believes even after conflict ends, oil prices will remain elevated for some time due to damaged infrastructure and psychological factors, with political implications if prices don't fall before elections.

12 calls

-7

slightly worse than random

3/10/2026 7:28:35 PM	long term cautious down	61 days later	+12.40%	-6.20%
3/10/2026 3:31:15 PM	long term cautious down	61 days later	+12.40%	-6.20%
2/24/2026 3:05:30 PM	medium term cautious down	20 days later	+47.07%	-23.53%
10/31/2025 2:15:32 AM	short term up	7 days later	-1.51%	-1.51%

Show all 4 wti results

How do you see the Iran situation playing out?

Andrew Ross Sorkin
Rand Paul

Oil prices went up very quickly on the rumor of war and then with actual war. The question is how sticky is it on the downside?

Even if the war doesn't involve boots on the ground, extensive bombing will affect oil infrastructure in Iran and Gulf States.
Rand Paul

I suspect it's going to be quite sticky on the way down. Emotions bid things up quickly and then the calming of emotions brings things down slowly.
Rand Paul

The danger politically for Republicans is if the war goes on another month, the stickiness or slowness of prices coming down isn't complete by October, November, and has a big effect on the election.
Rand Paul

I'm against the war because I don't see a national interest in us expending $1-2 billion a day, and I don't believe it's in our national interest to send young men and women to fight and die in Iran.
How do you think this ends? Ray Dalio says no agreement will resolve this war.

Dalio says leaving Hormuz in Iranian hands or taking control away will be the worst phase of conflict.

Andrew Ross Sorkin
Rand Paul

I think he's probably accurate that there's not going to be an agreement. We have no idea who to even call - most leadership has been killed.

We don't have good deconfliction with adversaries like Iran and China.
Rand Paul

People facing extinction don't back down. This would go to civil war in the streets if there's opposition. Ultimately liberty is only won by the people who are there.

Outside help has destabilized the regime, but people there will have to fight.
Rand Paul

Often people say this war is in our national security interest - that's a conclusion, not a debate. I think there's a lot of negative for the war, not a whole lot of upside for America.

SignalTube

markets at a glance