Market misreads potential Fed nominee Warsh as a Trump dove; he's an orthodox hawk. The core trade is a structural repricing of the curve. Sonal Desai pegs neutral r* at 4-4.25% (vs Fed's ~3%) and sees term premium normalizing to ~75bps on a deteriorating fiscal outlook. This implies the entire curve is structurally too low and vulnerable to a significant move higher. The era of central bank-suppressed volatility and yields is over.