Tech rotation and European opportunities (with Tom, Anna)

4/16/2026 1:33:28 PM	medium term down	20 days later	+0.15%	-0.15%
3/4/2026 2:20:59 PM	short term up	5 days later	-0.49%	-0.49%

Asks whether the tech volatility is a Korean-specific issue or a broader concern.

Tom

Bilal Hafeez

The Korean market is heavily overweight chip companies, but the decline doesn't erase the doubling this year. This could continue; the market needs discrimination. The big question is where AI profits accumulate—chipmakers or hyperscalers.

Hyperscalers face scrutiny on token costs and open-source competition. On the infrastructure side, chip demand still has scope, especially in memory. This is a temporary consensus correction, not a fundamental unraveling.

Asks how to adjust portfolios for increased volatility and where to find opportunities.

Anna

Bilal Hafeez

Focus on Japan (cheaper valuations, government support) and European tech (outperforming US tech, attractive value). European tech is dragged down by weak macro perception, but has leading companies. Lower energy prices will boost the European story.

European tech has actually outperformed US tech over the past year or two. People confuse weak European macro with a negative tech story.

Asks about the dollar's resilience and whether it can sustain a rally.

Tom

Bilal Hafeez

The dollar is far from its multi-year peaks. Everyone is long dollars. A sustained rally requires a proper Fed hiking cycle, which Warsh is not delivering—he's using talk to do the work. Headline inflation will come down in coming months, taking pressure off.

The consumer sector in the US is still weak; it's a capex story driving everything. Warsh wants to establish credibility early on.

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